Confidence among American consumers fell sharply in February, hitting a 29-month low, while long-run inflation expectations recorded their biggest monthly jump in 32 years, according to the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. households are bracing for some uncertainty—possibly turbulence—as tariffs and other policies take effect, and as government spending shifts to the private sector, comments Epoch Times.

The University of Michigan’s survey showed sentiment plunging 11 percent last month to a preliminary reading of 57.9, down from 64.7 in January and the lowest level since November 2022. The index has now dropped 22 percent since December, when post-election enthusiasm over President Donald Trump’s pro-business policies sent confidence soaring.

Inflation expectations are also rising. Long-run inflation projections climbed from 3.5 percent in January to 3.9 percent in February—the largest month-over-month increase since 1993. Short-term expectations rose as well, with year-ahead inflation forecasts jumping from 4.3 percent to 4.9 percent, marking the highest reading in 29 months and the third consecutive month of significant increases.

Despite these declines, the data suggest consumers are more concerned about the future than the present, as job market conditions and broader economic indicators remain relatively strong.

President Trump has dismissed concerns about a downturn. He told reporters on March 11 that he does not believe a recession is coming “at all” and said that the country is “going to boom.”

Inflation expectations are also rising. Long-run inflation projections climbed from 3.5 percent in January to 3.9 percent in February—the largest month-over-month increase since 1993. Short-term expectations rose as well, with year-ahead inflation forecasts jumping from 4.3 percent to 4.9 percent, marking the highest reading in 29 months and the third consecutive month of significant increases.

Despite these declines, the data suggest consumers are more concerned about the future than the present, as job market conditions and broader economic indicators remain relatively strong.

Trump has dismissed concerns about a downturn. He told reporters on March 11 that he does not believe a recession is coming “at all” and said that the country is “going to boom.”

Some analysts believe consumer anxiety may be overstated. Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, downplayed the significance of the survey’s steep decline.

“Extreme readings are more noise than signal,” Cox stated. However, he noted that the prospect of fiscal tightening could be unsettling: “I’m pretty sure people won’t like austerity—and these readings may very well reflect what people see coming. Free money has a price, and it’s no fun when it ends.”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has called Trump’s economic approach “the most important thing America has ever had.” He suggested that even if a brief recession occurs, it will be “worth it.”

“The only reason there could possibly be a recession is because of the Biden nonsense that we had to live with,” Lutnick told CBS, echoing Trump’s claim that Biden-era spending drove inflation and created an unsustainable economic sugar high. Lutnick said Trump’s policies will be revenue-generating: “They produce growth. They produce factories being built here.”

The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence came ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady in the 4.25–4.50 percent range.

The Fed raised rates by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation, which surged to a multi-decade high of 9 percent during Biden’s tenure.

Meanwhile, in contrast to the University of Michigan data, the latest Freedom Economy Index (FEI) survey reveals a dramatic turnaround in sentiment among America’s small businesses.

The March 2025 survey, which polled a nationwide sample of 50,000 small business owners, shows a seismic shift—with 80 percent now reporting increased economic optimism since November, and 68 percent expecting economic growth in 2025. This marks a sharp reversal from October 2024, when 57 percent were predicting a recession.

By Evelyn Pyburn

Yellowstone County Commissioners unanimously rejected the Billings Area Pedestrian and Bicycle Master Plan, which was presented to them by the City –County Planning Department. Besides the commissioners, the plan goes before the Yellowstone County Planning Board, the Billings City Council, and the Policy Coordinating Committee (PCC) for approval.

As the plan was being presented to the County Commissioners by Alta Planning+ Design, the engineering firm engaged to develop it, Commissioner John Ostlund raised questions about whether they weighed the cost vs benefits of spending so much on building trails for the use of so few people.  He said he has been involved with the issue for many years and has observed that one can drive around the community on a very nice day and not see even ten bikes on the bike trails.  “I can’t find a bike on the bike trails,” he said.

Ostlund referenced S. 32nd  Street W. in Billings, where a bike trail shares the pavement of a very busy thoroughfare with heavy traffic that is often stalled waiting to move forward – with their motors running – while beside them is a  bike lane with not one bike on it, that could be used for more space to improve the traffic flow.

Ostlund said, “I am not going to rubber stamp the plans going forward. I will vote no,” because over the years, “I have asked and asked” about whether this has been reviewed. “It’s a terrible investment. I have never seen anything that spends so much with less benefit.”

Ostlund pointed out that the cost for striping and for signage of a bike trail on city streets, exceeds the cost of striping and signage for the street.

He challenged the practicality of following the federal “Complete Streets” program, which Billings adopted, saying he believes “Complete Streets is a complete failure.”

Elyse Monat, Transportation Planner for the City of Billings Planning Division, said that there have been changes to the plan to make users more comfortable in using bike trails, those routes are identified in the plan as “high comfort.” They involve shared-use paths and provide facilities for pedestrians such as neighborhood bikeways, bike lanes, buffered bike lanes, and separated bike lanes.

Lora Mattox, Transportation Planning Coordinator for the Planning Division, explained the goal of having a bike trail system. “We are trying to make sure people who don’t drive have a means of transportation.”

County Commissioner Mike Waters said that he has noticed trails get the most use in park areas. He added that they do serve “such a small population” and while “it is a lofty goal, we spend a lot of money on them.”

Mattox replied, “We do try to take advantage of the parks .. we are trying to be more diligent in how we plan for these facilities.”

County Commissioner Mark Morse asked about the funding.

Elyse Monat explained the “external funding” they have received in the past, citing a number of federal grants.

Morse responded, “All of it is government tax money.”

Monat conceded that it was, but there is some funding from private organizations—mostly for upkeep.

Morse asked whether they push some of the costs onto private developers.

Monat replied that, “Yes, it is very common that developers will enter an agreement with the city to build sidewalks” and other internal structures in subdivisions to serve the transportation needs.

Mattox further explained, “We have been hearing that people want more connectivity…they want to connect between subdivisions . . . they want to have sidewalk connections.”

Ostlund underscored that sidewalks are not bike trails, and replied, “I like the sidewalks. The Safe Routes to School, if they have a funding source.”

Morse questioned varying data included in the plan regarding attendees at public hearings and surveys. One survey was conducted at the Strawberry Festival where the number of respondents was stated to be 200. Morse asked, “Is this because you had a booth at the Strawberry Festival and anyone who walked by was counted as an attendee?”

Mattox said “We had an interactive poll and we counted them if they participated in it.”

There was discussion about the Billings Area Pedestrian and Bicycle program’s struggle to fund the cost of maintaining the trails. Morse said, “When your own plan says we can’t afford the maintenance. It is time to reconsider building them.”

The Plan sets out several goals of the Billings Area Pedestrian and Bicycle system. An overall objective of the Billings Area Pedestrian and Bicycle program is to reduce reliance on motor vehicles and to contribute to more walking and bicycling.

Most of the funding for bike trail construction comes from the federal government’s Federal Highway Administration

Local property tax dollars fund maintenance and safety improvements. Property owners are also assessed fees when developing new areas of growth, which may include donations of right away for trails.

Constructing bike and pedestrian trail costs between $62,652 to $1,523,144 per mile depending on where it is located and the degree to which safety measures and signage is required, whether it is separated from traffic or paved.

According to data in the master plan the daily average use of shared use paths, in the Billings area, is 3,786. Bike trail usage averages about 467 bikers a day throughout the system, according to plan data.

The Billings trails, over 61 miles of bike and pedestrian path ways, have been constructed including on-street bikeways, paved trails and sidewalks.

The Montana Aeronautics Board has allocated more than $3.2 million in funding for fiscal year (FY) 2026. This funding is designated for a range of airport infrastructure enhancement initiatives.

A portion of the annual grants and loans is intended to match 95/5 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) funding for substantial airport construction projects. Requests totaling approximately $5.7 million were submitted by 49 public-use airports throughout the state. Ultimately, the Board awarded funding for 123 out of 140 submitted project proposals from 44 public airports in Montana, encompassing both federally supported and non-federally supported projects.

By Sarah Roderick-Fitch, The Center Square

A coalition of state attorneys general is filing an amicus brief in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, urging the court to lift a nationwide restraining order that is “preventing” the “immediate deportation” of “Tren de Aragua gang members.”

Leading the effort are Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares and South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson, who joined 24 other states, including Montana, after a judge for the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia issued an order temporarily halting the deportations of members of the Venezuelan gang. The order came as the aircraft carrying the gang members was airborne.

The deportations followed President Donald Trump’s announcement that he was invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This prompted Chief Judge James Boasberg to immediately issue a temporary restraining order blocking the removal of “all noncitizens in U.S. custody who are subject” to the president’s order.

Boasberg ordered the planes en route to Central America to be turned around. The Trump administration immediately appealed Boasberg’s order to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.

The planes carrying the migrants arrived in El Salvador, with the Trump administration claiming they complied with the court order but that the aircraft was out of U.S. airspace by the time Boasberg issued his order.

In January, the president designated Tren de Aragua a foreign terrorist organization, along with seven other cartels from Latin America.

In the latest brief, the coalition of attorneys general argues that allowing the TRO to stand “undermines public safety and national security, placing American lives at risk.”

The group defended the president’s executive order, saying it is “grounded in clear constitutional and statutory authority to remove TdA members.” They added that the district court “overstepped its bounds by issuing a restraining order without fully considering the Executive Branch’s compelling interest in national security.”

Miyares underscored the duties of the government in protecting its citizens, adding that the president’s actions are constitutionally protected.

“The core duty of government is to protect its citizens. The President, acting within his constitutional and statutory authority, did just that by ordering the removal of TdA gang members who have no legal right to be in this country and pose a direct threat to Americans’ safety. TdA is a violent transnational criminal organization responsible for heinous crimes across the United States. The law is clear, and so is our position,” said Miyares.

The brief comes on the heels of Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Texas, introducing articles of impeachment against Boasberg, who was appointed to the bench by former president Barack Obama.

Earlier in the day, the president called Boasberg a “Radical Left Lunatic” in a Truth Social post, adding that the judge “should be impeached.”

The post led U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts to issue rare comments criticizing the president, saying the court system should be left to resolve legal disputes.

“For more than two centuries, it has been established that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision,” Roberts said Tuesday in a statement. “The normal appellate review process exists for that purpose.”

Other states that joined the coalition: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and West Virginia.

By Evelyn Pyburn

Yellowstone County has a new addition to its judicial system – -a new court that focuses upon arraignments. It is being operated in the county department of Justices of the Peace. Judge Jeanne Walker and Judge David Carter have been presiding over the court for about a month.

Creating an arraignment court is part of improving and making more efficient the process of adjudicating criminals, which is a necessity in making the new short-term detention facility functional, according to Justice of the Peace Carter, who has spent the past year or more leading the process of developing and establishing the court.

The short-term detention facility is a city-county project in the process of being built next to the Yellowstone County Detention Facility, which is expected to be completed late this fall. It is viewed as a solution to the over-crowded jail that serves Yellowstone County. It will enable law enforcement to arrest and hold those perpetrating offenses who, in the past, law enforcement has not been able to arrest because of having no place to hold them

The concept of an arraignment court – this will be the first one in Montana – emerged from Yellowstone County’s  10-person committee that was appointed two years ago to look at the entire justice system and the new jail proposal for the county and City of Billings, to develop a more efficient and economical system. An arraignment court was viewed as essential to the process of making the short -term detention facility function well.

So far arraignment court has gone well, said Carter. They have focused on working out the wrinkles. “There will probably be changes,” said Carter, but so far it’s been pretty smooth. “We are building something,” he said, “Until you start doing it you are not quite sure how it will work.”

Arraignment court will be held at 2:30 pm every day, Monday through Friday.

An arraignment is usually a felony or misdemeanor defendant’s first court appearance after arrest. During the arraignment, a defendant is formally advised of the criminal charges against him, informed of their rights, and asked to enter a plea to the charges, and often a public defender is appointed. The court also looks at the defendant’s history, and decides whether the defendant will be released pending trial, whether they must wear an ankle bracelet and bond is set.

A public defender stands with the defendant during the process to explain and advise about the proceedings.

The judge goes through a process of sorting out the charges against a defendant in accordance with state laws or local ordinances, looking at their criminal record and determining, if there are other outstanding charges, misdemeanors or felons.

Most of the time a defendant has other outstanding charges against them, perhaps in more than one court, explained Judge Carter. During arraignment court the judge gives them a schedule of not only their next court appearance on the current charge, but also other pending court appearances and dates at which they are required to appear.

According to Judge Carter, missing court dates is the most common infraction for which other charges are often made. “It gets to be a revolving door,” he said, underscoring that their goal is “to get the people who don’t need to be in jail out, or to make sure they are in jail for the right period of time – – and to do that correctly — more efficiently and elegantly and timely.” Court hearing dates can be complicated, he said, and overwhelming for people who sometimes have many other unfortunate things happening in their lives.

Currently, the defendants appear in arraignment court via video from the Yellowstone County Detention Facility (YCDF), with the court room located in the County Courthouse. Asked if that will continue to be the model, Judge Carter said it is not considered best practices. Ideally, he believes, arraignment court should be held at the YCDF.

Whether that will be included for the plans of a new addition to the YCDF, he isn’t sure. The county has to authorize that, he said, adding, “There has been discussions, and support expressed. But there is no room currently.”

The process of being prepared for their first court appearance is far more complicated than it might appear. It takes a staff of knowledgeable and trained people to prepare the case – to gather all the documents pertaining to other outstanding charges and their status, and to check on the defendant’s record, family and criminal record. The first half of the day on court days is spent by staff preparing all the necessary information and documentation for the judge. Some are on the job at 6 a.m.

Starting an arraignment court required the hiring of 1.5 FTEs (employees) said Carter, pointing out however that much of the work involved is being absorbed into by the existing Justice Court staff. While $45,000 has been set aside in the budget for the arraignment court, it is just there in case they discover a need for it.

Right now there are five people in Justice Court dedicated to pre- trial services. “It is more expansive than just arraignment court,” explained Judge Carter. “We have other programs for pre- trial services.” Four of the five staff members have been trained for arraignment court, but they also have secondary duties. “It is very hard,” said Judge Carter, “But we are building on that and will evolve.”

In the long term – which essentially means when most of the county’s administration offices move into the county’s new administration building, and the Courthouse has been remodeled as exclusively a court house – Justice Court anticipates requesting another Justice of the Peace. An additional Justice of the Peace would be welcomed, said Judge Carter.

The challenges before Yellowstone County’s judicial system are significant and so will be the challenges to the arraignment court which will not only be serving a justice court with the largest case load in the state, but also a district court with the largest case load in the state, and a city with the largest municipal court case load in the state. They haven’t taken on the arraignments for the city municipal court yet because that court is quite literally in the process of moving to the new city hall.

The arraignment court expects to assume their case load in May.

The state of Montana’s General Fund tax revenues declined in 2024, according to Terry Johnson, former chief revenue forecaster for the state of Montana, now retired.

In Fiscal 2024, total general fund revenue collections were $3.32 billion, with 76.9% collected from income (individual and corporation) taxes. These revenues are used to finance a variety of state services, but most are used for education, human service, and public safety programs, explained Johnson in an article included in the Bureau of Business and Economic Research’s report included as information for their annual Economic Outlook Seminar.

Total General Fund revenue collections decreased by $620.8 million, or 15.7 %, from collections received in fiscal 2023.

This change was unusually large, according to Johnson, due to a decline in property taxes, which were $338.8 million in 2023., “Other Sources” was down $249.9 million, and revenue collected from natural resources (including oil and natural gas tax) declined $31.4 million, for a total decline of $620.1 million or 15.7 percent.

The property tax decline was due to legislative changes adopted by the 68th Legislature that redirected most of these revenues to a non-general fund account for support of public education.

In addition, there is a non-general fund account called the Budget Stabilization Reserve Fund (BSRF), which is used to provide funding for the general fund account if revenue collections fall below expectations. The BSRF is funded from general-fund monies that are above a specified amount at the end of each fiscal year.

The natural resource revenue decline was due to price and production fluctuations for most of the fossil fuel types.

The decline of $10.4 million in individual income tax collections can be explained by the fact that in 2024 there were no more federal payments to Montana citizens and businesses which were enacted by Congress following the impacts of Covid-19.

The economic statistics maintained by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis provide measures of transfer payments to Montanans as well as wage and salary income of employees. According to their data the amount of change increased by $2.9 billion from 2019 to 2020, a 27.4% increase with a further increase of $1.2 billion from 2020 to 2021 for a total increase of $4.1 billion over the two-year period. Once the stimulus payments were eliminated, transfer payments declined by $1.6 billion from 2021 to 2022.

Transfer payments from 2022 to 2023 have now returned to a more normal growth pattern observed prior to 2020.

The pandemic also had an impact on the workforce available for Montana businesses. Throughout Montana there were numerous posted signs indicating businesses were searching for workers.

This workforce demand increased the wage offerings of businesses.

Higher wages increased total state wage and salary incomes. Total wage income increased by $2.6 billion or 10.9% from 2020 to 2021 and $2.5 billion or 9.4% from 2021 to 2022. Wage growth from 2022 to 2023 has moderated and is now closer to historical trends.

Higher wage income increased state individual income tax collections in fiscal 2022 but were diminished by the decline in transfer payments in calendar 2022. Individual income tax collections are expected to return to a more normal growth pattern after 2024 reflecting more normal growth rates for wages and transfer payments as well as taxpayer behavior payment patterns returning to historical trends.

In the coming days, the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) will promulgate a new policy requiring SBA loan applications to include a citizenship verification provision to ensure only legal, eligible applicants can access SBA programs, announced U.S. Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler.

 Lenders will be required to confirm that applicant businesses are not owned in whole or in part by an illegal alien, consistent with President Trump’s executive order ending the taxpayer subsidization of open borders.

Additionally, the SBA will relocate six of its regional offices currently in municipalities that do not comply with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Over the coming months, the Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Denver, New York City, and Seattle regional offices will be moved to less costly, more accessible locations that better serve the small business community and comply with federal immigration law.

“Over the last four years, the record invasion of illegal aliens has jeopardized both the lives of American citizens and the livelihoods of American small business owners, who have each become victims of Joe Biden’s migrant crime spree. Under President Trump, the SBA is committed to putting American citizens first again – starting by ensuring that zero taxpayer dollars go to fund illegal aliens,” Administrator Loeffler said.

“Today, I am pleased to announce that this agency will cut off access to loans for illegal aliens and relocate our regional offices out of sanctuary cities that reward criminal behavior. We will return our focus to empowering legal, eligible business owners across the United States – in partnership with the municipalities who share this Administration’s commitment to secure borders and safe communities.”

Under the last Administration, lax guardrails allowed illegal aliens to both apply for and get approved for SBA assistance. In June 2024, the agency approved a $783,000 loan application for a small business that was 49% owned by an illegal alien. Last month, under the leadership of this Administration, an internal SBA audit identified the illegal status of the individual and halted the loan from being disbursed – ensuring that $0 was distributed to the business.

Big Sky Economic Development (BSED) announced that Paul Green has been selected as the organization’s next Executive Director. Green has resigned his position as Director of the Montana Department of Commerce in order to accept the position. Green was appointed as Commerce director in January 2024.

BSED conducted a national search to replace retiring BSED Executive Director, Steve Arveschoug. Arveschoug will continue leading the organization through mid-April, to ensure a smooth transition. A start date for Green has not been determined; additional details will be announced as they become available.

The search for Arveschoug’s replacement was conducted by Jorgenson Pace, a search committee led by BSED Board Members and Montana State University Billings Chancellor Stefani Hicswa, along with other BSED board members and stakeholders.

Green brings extensive experience in economic and community development, project management, and public-private partnerships. As Director of the Montana Department of Commerce Green oversaw multiple divisions focused on business attraction, infrastructure development, tourism, housing, and economic growth. Throughout his career, he has led initiatives that drive job creation, streamline regulations, and enhance stakeholder engagement. His leadership spans roles in both public and private sectors, including serving as Executive Director of the Montana Business Incubator and Two Rivers Economic Development Authority, where he successfully implemented strategic growth initiatives, secured major infrastructure investments, and worked with business and government leaders to foster economic resilience.

“Our selection committee worked hard to find an Executive Director who can lead our organization into the future,” said Nick Pancheau, EDC Board Chair, “As one of the leading Economic Development Organizations in the state with a talented team, it was important to select a candidate that both understands our local economy, and one who is ready to roll up their sleeves and get to work on day one. We believe we have found those attributes in Paul Green and we look forward to his leadership.”

“I am very pleased that the results of our national search resulted in an outstanding pool of highly qualified applicants,” said Chancellor Stefani Hicswa, “Paul will serve us well as our new Executive Director. I appreciate the hard work of the search committee and the excellent feedback from staff and stakeholders.”

Debbie Desjarlais, BSED EDA Board Chair, commented, “I’m pleased with the outcome of the search. The search committee, along with Jorgenson Pace, has worked long and hard on this search. I believe Paul Green is the right person at this time for BSED. Congratulations, Paul. We have the greatest confidence in the world of future success. Not just for the organization, but for the city of Billings.”

Governor Greg Gianforte has appointed Deputy Director Mandy Rambo as acting leader of the Department of Commerce. 

New Treasury Department numbers show that soaring federal handouts for wind and solar dwarf all other energy-related provisions in the tax code and will cost taxpayers $421 billion by 2034.

The 10-year cost of federal tax expenditures for wind and solar has increased 21-fold since 2015, according to a report in Substack.

In 2005, Scientific American published an article saying that the hockey stick graph published a few years earlier by Michael Mann, an academic who now works at the University of Pennsylvania, had become “an iconic symbol of humanity’s contribution to global warming.”

Mann and the hockey stick have become defining examples of the politicization of climate science.

The staggering cost of the subsidies Congress has given to Big Wind, Big Solar, and other alt-energy outfits in the name of climate change. In late November, the Treasury Department published the newest edition of its annual report on tax expenditures, which it says are “revenue losses attributable to provisions of Federal tax laws.”

Those credits, which are the principal drivers behind the deployment of wind and solar energy, and a handful of other forms of alt-energy, are, by far, the most expensive energy-related provisions in the federal tax code. Between 2025 and 2034, the ITC and PTC will account for more than half of all energy-related tax provisions. And that total does not include the tax credits for electric vehicles.

The Yellowstone Board of County Commissioners passed a resolution increasing the  inmate reimbursement rate for Montana Department of Corrections an Federal inmates, held at the Yellowstone County Detention Facility (YCDF). The Montana rate will increase from $82.80 to $117 per inmate/day. The Federal government rate will increase from $85 to $117 per inmate day.

For several years, YCDF has been reimbursed a daily rate per inmate less than actual cost. Approximately 10+ years ago, the State of Montana provided their formula to Yellowstone County to calculate daily inmate rate. Since that time, the Board of County Commissioners and the Sheriff’s Office have attempted to recover actual inmate costs from the state. Montana officials have always claimed Yellowstone County improperly calculated the rate and imposed a rate set by the Legislature. The result has been Yellowstone County taxpayers subsidizing the State to hold their prisoners.

Over the past year, Commissioners, Sheriff’s Office and County Attorney’s office have worked to make YCDF and the criminal justice system, in Yellowstone County, operate more efficiently. While this has helped, it has not relieved pressure on the jail. YCDF routinely houses an average of 575-600+ inmates/day. On average, YCDF houses 50+/- DOC inmates and 50+/- Federal inmates per day.

The effective date of this resolution will be April 1, 2025. This provides an opportunity for the Montana Legislature, during this session to take appropriate action, states the press release.