By Bethany Blankley, The Center Square

U.S. petroleum products exports set a new record in the first half of 2023, according to newly released U.S. Energy Information Association data. 

U.S. exports of petroleum products grew 2% to nearly 6 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2023 (1H23) compared to the same period in 2022, according to the EIA. 

In the first half of 2022, the US became the world’s largest liquified natural gas (LNG) exporter, because European countries experienced energy shortages from failed “green energy” policies and reduced reliance on Russian oil, according to energy experts. The U.S., led by Texas, gave European countries a “lifeline,” Texans for Natural Gas explained. 

The increase in petroleum products exports was the greatest volume of first-half-of-the-year exports the EIA has ever reported since it began publishing its Petroleum Supply Monthly report in 1981. Exports of propane and other hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs) drove the increase, it says. 

Exports of other major petroleum products like motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel all decreased compared to the same time period last year. Growth in this area was less than during the same time period last year because exports in 1H22 skyrocketed to meet increased demand in Europe. 

The U.S. was also the top exporter of liquified natural gas in the first half of 2023, again led by Gulf states.

U.S. exports of crude oil continued to increase in the first half of this year, rising to 4 million b/d—19% higher than the first half of last year, the EIA notes. 

U.S. propane exports in 1H23 averaged 1.5 million b/d in 1H23, an 8% increase (119,000 b/d) from 1H22, according to the EIA data. Propane was the most-exported U.S. petroleum product in 1H23, continuing a trend that began in 2020, it notes. Propane exports “are the primary driver of overall higher U.S. petroleum product exports so far this year,” EIA says. Other HGL exports were also a significant driver of 1H23 export growth, increasing by 9% (85,000 b/d) compared to 1H22.

While propane exports to European and Central and South American countries decreased in 1H23 compared to 1H22, exports to Asian countries increased rapidly, according to the report. Nearly 60% of U.S. propane exports went to Asia in 1H23, mostly to Japan, China, and South Korea, the EIA states.

Total distillate exports to Europe increased in 1H23 compared to 1H22 after the EU imposed a ban on all Russian petroleum products at the beginning of 2023. U.S. distillate fuel oil exports to European countries averaged 138,000 b/d in 1H23 compared to 56,000 b/d in 1H22, with the UK and the Netherlands receiving the most.

“The increase in distillate exports to Europe even as exports to other destinations declined partially reflects rerouted trade flows in response to sanctions on petroleum product imports from Russia,” the EIA notes. “Exports to Europe from the United States are replacing distillate supplies that previously came from Russia, which now lack market access in Europe and therefore are being exported to destinations further abroad.”

Ed Longanecker, with Texans for Natural Gas and the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association, told The Center Square that “Texas energy – from our wells in West Texas to our ports along the Gulf of Mexico – enabled America to meet European gas needs in a time of crisis” last year. Texas energy provides energy security to the U.S. and its allies, he and others in the industry maintain. “Without American natural gas, Europe would have been at the mercy of aggressive foreign powers,” he said.

Shamrock Foods, the largest family-held foodservice distributor in the western United States, has acquired Valley Distributing of Montana (Valley) in Billings. With a location in Billings,  Shamrock Foods has been serving Montana since 2020, distributing products to the restaurant and foodservice industry.

“Throughout Shamrock’s 100-year history, our success is built on our absolute commitment to taking care of our customers and making it easy for them to do business with us,” said Kent McClelland, Shamrock Foods Company Chairman and CEO. “Valley strengthens our ability to serve our Montana customers and expands our footprint in the West.”

With this acquisition, Shamrock’s customer base benefits from a Montana-based warehouse with room for expansion. Shamrock will build upon its local team, led by Montana native, Warren Helmer, in welcoming Valley’s employees into the Shamrock family of associates.

“We are working closely with Valley to ensure a smooth transition for all employees and customers,” said McClelland. “Growth is a way of life at Shamrock and as we continue to reinvest in people, fleet, facilities and technology, we look forward to a strong future in Montana.”

Shamrock Foodservice Warehouse’s retail store is located in Billings Heights, which provides access to high-quality foodservice products to restaurant operators and the general public with no membership fees.

Established over 100 years ago, the family-owned and -operated company attributes its longevity to an unwavering commitment to growing the best people, products, and services.

Shamrock Foods Company specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of quality food and food-related products through its family of companies including Shamrock Foods – the largest independent foodservice company in the West and top five in the United States, and Shamrock Farms – one of the largest family-owned and operated dairies nationwide. Founded in 1922 with 20 cows, a truck and a dream, Shamrock has grown into a national leader serving customers coast to coast. Four generations later, Shamrock Foods Company is still family-owned.

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.6 of a point in August to 91.3, the 20th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important business problem, up two points from last month. The net percentage of owners raising average selling prices increased two points to a net 27% (seasonally adjusted), still at an inflationary level.

“With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions discouraging, owners want to hire and make money now from strong consumer spending,” said NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses) Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Inflation and the worker shortage continue to be the biggest obstacles for Main Street.”

Key findings include:

* Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months deteriorated seven points from July to a net negative 37%; however, while still at recession levels, the reading is 24 percentage points better than that of last June, which was a net negative 61%.

* Forty percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, down two points from July but remain historically high.

* The net percentage of owners who expect real sales to be higher decreased two points from July to a net negative 14%.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 40% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period. Owners’ plans to fill open positions remain elevated, with a seasonally adjusted net 17% planning to create new jobs in the next three months.

Fifty-six percent reported capital outlays in the last six months, up one point from July. Of those making expenditures, 37% reported spending on new equipment, 24% acquired vehicles, and 17% improved or expanded facilities. Eleven percent spent money on new fixtures and furniture, and 4% acquired new buildings or land for expansion. Twenty-four percent of owners plan capital outlays in the next few months, down three points from July.

A net negative 14% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, the lowest reading since August 2020. The net percentage of owners expecting higher real sales volumes declined two points to a net negative 14%.

The net percentage of owners reporting inventory gains declined four points to a net negative 7%. Not seasonally adjusted, 11% reported increases in stocks and 16% reported reductions. A net negative 5% of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in August, down one point from July. By industry, shortages are the most frequent in retail (9%), finance (7%), manufacturing (7%), and services (7%). Zero percent of owners plan inventory investments in the coming months, up two points from July.

The net percentage of owners raising average selling prices increased two points from July to a net 27% (seasonally adjusted). Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up two points.

Unadjusted, 12% reported lower average selling prices and 38% reported higher average prices. Price hikes were the most frequent in finance (52% higher, 7% lower), construction (51% higher, 6% lower), retail (45% higher, 11% lower), and wholesale (36% higher, 20% lower). Seasonally adjusted, a net 30% plan price hikes.

The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 25%, up five points. Among owners reporting lower profits, 28% blamed weaker sales, 24% blamed the rise in the cost of materials, 15% cited labor costs, 10% cited lower prices, 5% cited the usual seasonal change, and 3% cited higher taxes or regulatory costs. For owners reporting higher profits, 45% credited sales volumes, 29% cited usual seasonal change, and 12% cited higher selling prices.

Two percent of owners reported that financing was their top business problem. A net 24% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan.

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in August 2023.

Amy Watson, State Economist

As of the beginning of September, the Montana economy continues its strong expansion. Employment is at an all-time high, unemployment rates have reached record lows, and economic production continues to grow at a steady pace despite tight labor markets and inflationary headwinds. Extraordinary job growth and accelerated wage growth have strengthen Montana households and supported continued economic expansion throughout the state. Labor market highlights include:

• In 2022, Montana added 20,900 jobs – the most of any year in state history. Montana ranked 8th among states for employment growth in 2022, posting 3.9% growth.

• The unemployment rate fell to a record-low 2.3% the first quarter of 2023, with the number of unemployed Montanans also hitting a record low of nearly 13,000.

• Tight labor market conditions persisted in 2022, with nearly three job openings for every one unemployed person. The state’s aging population and increased retirements has driven long run declines in labor force participation, further exacerbating the state’s workforce shortage. The number of retirees in the state surpassed 200,000 in 2022.

• Record low unemployment rates have increased competition for workers and driven up wages. The average wage for Montana workers rose by over 6% in 2022, the 4th fastest among states. The average wage earned by Montana workers reached $54,525 in 2022. Inflation outpaced wage growth in 2022, resulting in real average wage declines of 1.6%.

• Montana’s labor force has never been larger, with over 575,000 Montanans working or seeking work. Strong wage growth and a significant uptick in in-migration has helped increase the available pool of workers for Montana businesses. Montana ranks 2nd in the nation for the largest percentage of in-migration from 2020 to 2022. Over 40,000 more people moved to the state than left from 2020 to 2022, translating to 3.8% of the Montana’s population. About 65% of people who recently moved to the state are either employed or actively seeking work, which is higher than the labor force participation rate of existing residents.

The strength of Montana’s labor market help support economic growth in the state. Business formation reached a record high, which propelled economic output to new heights. Continued growth in the Montana economy translated to more income for Montana households. Strong household balance sheets helped offset the impact of rising prices, allowing Montanans to continue spending to support the overall economy.

• The Montana economy grew by 1.6% in 2022, as measured by real gross domestic product. The economy contracted slightly during the first two quarters of 2022, as inflation and the conflict in Ukraine were a drag on economic growth. However, growth turned positive in the second half of the year as inflation moderated. The first quarter of 2023 shows continued economic strength, growing by 6% and ranking 5th in the nation for fastest growth.

• Business formation in Montana reached a record high in 2022, with new business applications

exceeding 20,000 in 2022. Montana boasts the 3rd highest rate of business ownership among states.

• Personal income grew by 3.1% in 2022 – ranking Montana 19th in the nation for fastest personal income growth. On a per capita basis, average income rose to $57,719 in 2022 – ranking 29th  highest among states.

• One of the primary headwinds to economic growth in Montana and across the U.S. during 2022 was inflation. Inflation reached a forty-year high of 9.1% in June of 2022. Since then, changes in monetary policy and easing of supply chain bottlenecks have caused inflation to moderate. As of June 2023, inflation has fallen to 3% over-the-year.

• Montana ranks 8th among states for fastest home price appreciation since 2020. The typical home value in Montana averaged $440,000 in the first quarter of 2023, up 51% from three years earlier.

Montana’s economy has shown strong expansion over the last few years. Although rising prices and tight labor markets have dampened economic enthusiasm, Montana’s labor market has continued to grow.

Workers continue to enjoy plentiful opportunities for high-wage jobs and businesses continue to thrive. Through productivity improvements, investments in worker training, and tapping into underutilized labor sources, Montana’s economy will continue to flourish