While the soybean market is being impacted by a China boycott of importing soybeans from the US, Montana producers face something of a mixed bag when it comes to impacts.

While China’s boycotting of US soybeans (a volatile dilemma since COVID) has reduced a significant export market, increasing demand for soybeans to produce biofuels has bolstered domestic demand.

While many US growers reported bumper crops this year, farmers are facing little to no exports to China, one of their largest customers. China is refusing to purchase soybeans from the US, partly in retaliation to President Trump’s tariffs. US exports are projected to be the lowest in 11 years, according to the USDA.

While the decline is substantial, it is not as low as it was in 2020 or 2023 – and the situation may not be as bad as some reports indicate, according to Farm Journal.

The impact depends on supply. A dry August in the eastern part of the country “may impact some yields,” reducing supply. If soybean yields are reduced by 1–1.5 bushels per acre, the market will “remain tight” if current export projections are met.

Montana soybean producers generate about $60 million annually in production, supporting about 180 growers. Only about $1.4 million in soybeans grown in Montana are exported, the rest is utilized for livestock feed. The national soybean sector has a total impact on America’s economy of around $124 billion – the equivalent of close to 0.6 percent of the U.S. GDP, and over 8 percent of the GDP for certain states (based on 2021 stats).

China is importing much of their soybeans from Brazil, where China has made investments into soybeans, and from Argentina. Other reports note that since the beginning of the China trade war, China has been helping to build infrastructure in not only Brazil but Mexico, Africa, and Argentina to compete with the US markets.

The Trump administration is considering a bailout for soybean farmers in the US, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The administration is also striving to find alternative markets for US soybeans.

According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump is meeting with the Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to determine where money for a farmer bailout should come from. He is anticipating a bailout of $10 billion to $14 billion and is considering using tariff revenue to fund the aid.

China accounted for more than half of the $24.5 billion of American soybean exports last year.

The next two largest buyers of American soybeans are the European Union and Mexico, which purchase about $5 billion in combined annual sales.

Countries such as Vietnam, Egypt and Bangladesh have increased their purchases of U.S. soybeans.

About 30 years ago, US farmers geared up their soybean production to meet increasing demand from China, according to the Wall Street Journal. Soybean acreage in the U.S. grew nearly 40% from 1995 to 2024.