From Oil Patch Hotline

Two major Wall Street banks are projecting higher prices for crude oil later this year because of production cuts by OPEC and hundreds of wells shut down in leading oil producing states of Texas and North Dakota.

UBS sees Brent rising to $43 a barrel by the end of the years because of lower prices and rising to $55 a barrel by mid-2021.

Goldman Sachs upped its Brent forecast from $52.50 to $55.63 a barrel  and raised West Texas Intermediate crude from $48.50 to $51.38 a barrel for 2021.

“Oil production has started to decline quickly from a combination of scale back in activity, shut-ins and core-OPEC/Russia production cuts. Demand is also beginning to recover from a low base, led by a restarting Chinese economy and increasing transportation demand in developed market economies,” Goldman Sachs said.

“We still expect oil demand to contract strongly this quarter, though not as much as we did before; we now estimate minus 15 million barrels per day  year on year for the second quarter, versus minus 20 mbpd previously,” UBS said.

The bank expects global oil supply to contract by nearly 6 mbpd year on year in the second quarter, citing forced production shut-ins in North and South America as current low price environment fails to cover operating costs.

During early trading May 6 the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI had risen to $23.62 a barrel and Brent was up to $29.81 a barrel.

Yellowstone County’s Disaster & Emergency Services Coordinator K. C. Williams has received a letter from the Department of Military Affairs for Montana announcing that his application for a grant to improve cyber security for Yellowstone County has been approved.

Official notification will probably not come until about September, said Williams, but at least tentatively the Senior Advisory Committee and the Homeland Security Advisor has selected Yellowstone County’s Cyber Security project for inclusion in Montana’s application to the Department of Homeland Security and FEMA for fiscal 2020. (Emergency services in Montana operate under the auspices of the Department of Military Affairs.)

The $75,000 grant will allow the county to make the needed improvements in a more complete, holistic approach than the phases that the county would otherwise have had to pursue. The end results will be much better, said Williams, and it won’t have to be funded by Yellowstone County taxpayers.

A few months ago, Jeff Slavick, Director of Information Technology in Yellowstone County, submitted a proposal to County Commissioners to begin the process of updating the county’s cyber security which he said was woefully inadequate. Upon learning this, Williams pointed out that improving cyber security of government agencies was a high priority of Homeland Security and they were making grants available.

Williams submitted an application for Slavick’s proposal. Some security the county has to provide by law, but much of it is just matter of good stewardship.

“It is just a better idea to be more secure” with all of the county’s electronic documents and data storage, said Williams, explaining that the county interacts with a lot of government agencies, as well as the civilian population, all of which are subject to potential cyber threats.

The grant will probably have an effective date of October 1. Williams said that he expects that the federal government will require that the project be completed within a year from the effective date.

KLJ Engineering welcomed Brenna Moloney to their Billings office.

Brenna Moloney

Moloney joins KLJ as an archaeologist. She earned a master’s in archaeology from Wayne State University, as well as a master’s in geography from Eastern Michigan University. She has ten years of experience in cultural resources.

Anderson Towing at 706 Central Ave. in  Billings has become a U-Haul neighborhood dealer to serve the Billings community.

Anderson Towing will offer essential services like U-Haul trucks, trailers, towing equipment, moving supplies and in-store pick-up for boxes.

Anderson Towing on Central owner Cameron Cochran is proud to team with the industry leader in do-it-yourself moving and self-storage to better meet the demands of Yellowstone County.

U-Haul has teamed with independent dealers to offer moving equipment since 1945. With the COVID-19 outbreak creating challenging times for small businesses, more than 20,000 dealers across the U.S. and Canada are creating supplemental income through their U-Haul partnership. When a customer rents from a U-Haul dealer, they are directly supporting an independent small business in their community.

As an essential service provider, U-Haul stores and dealers continue to serve the public. Their products are utilized by First Responders; delivery companies bringing needed supplies to people’s homes; small businesses trying to remain afloat; college students; and countless other dependent groups – in addition to the household mover.

U-Haul Truck Share 24/7 allows customers to create an online account and pick up their truck at any hour using only their smartphone with photo feature and GPS. Trained Live Verify agents interact with customers online, enabling them to skip the lines and go straight to their truck.

Reserve U-Haul products at Anderson Towing by calling (406) 545-1870 or visit https:// www.uhaul.com/ Locations/ Truck-Rentals- near-Billings- MT-59101.

By Colter Brown, Northern Ag Network

Lawmakers reached an agreement [last week] to allow agriculture to participate in the Small Business Administration’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program. The agreement is part of a larger deal, a $484 billion coronavirus package to extend the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The agreement also includes funds for small lenders and community banks, funds for national coronavirus testing and funding for hospitals.

Previously, the Small Business Administration had deemed agricultural producers ineligible for the EIDL. Montana’s senatorial delegation pushed for the change to the SBA program. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell credited Montana Senator Steve Daines and other senators from rural states for making it clear that farmers and ranchers are eligible for the program.

Earlier this month, Daines sent a letter to the Small Business Association urging them to grant farms, ranches, and agriculture businesses the opportunity to apply for the EIDL program. Upon passage of the bill, Daines commented that, “This is great news for Montana’s farmers and ranchers as they head into the spring planting season. Ensuring our farmers and ranchers have access to this program is critical to making sure they can continue to maintain our nation’s food supply chain during the Coronavirus outbreak.”

The $60 billion of funding, including an additional $10 billion for emergency EIDL grants, will replenish EIDL program for small businesses. This is in addition to the $10 billion Daines secured for EIDL in the Phase Three Coronavirus Economic Relief Package.

This is not Phase Four of Congress’ response to the coronavirus outbreak. This bipartisan deal is a boost in funding from the Coronavirus Economic Relief Package which was signed into law on March 27th, 2020 to protect public health, and provide relief for small businesses, workers and families.

Senator Jon Tester also pushed for the change to allow farms and ranches to qualify for the EIDL program. “Montana’s family farms and ranches are the lifeblood of our state’s agriculture, which is our state’s number one industry and is vital to rural communities across Big Sky Country,” said Tester. “The fact is our independent ag producers were just scraping by before this pandemic, so I fought to make sure this program was expanded to include them because these folks need certainty as we head into planting season. I am not going to let Washington leave rural America behind.”

The provision means ag businesses can now apply for low-interest loans through the program and may also qualify for the $10,000 emergency grants. To be eligible, ag businesses will have to show that they have been hurt by the economic downturn caused by coronavirus.

By Michael Lucci, The Center Square

Real-time unemployment rates climbed across all states during the week ending April 18, based on data from the Department of Labor. A new wave of 4.4 million American workers filed for unemployment insurance benefits, bringing the total count of initial unemployment claims up to 26.4 million in the last five weeks of Department of Labor data.

Montana’s real-time unemployment rate was 18.7 percent. Nationally it had climbed to 21.4 percent on the initial claims data, based upon 50 Economy labor market estimates. Initial claims have decreased week-over-week for three weeks in a row. However, the total count of unemployed American workers continues to climb by millions per week even as new claims slow down.

Real-time unemployment rates vary widely across the states from Kentucky (31.2%) Pennsylvania (29.1%) and Michigan (28.7%) at the high end to Wyoming (12.5%) Utah (11.7%) and South Dakota (9.3%) on the low end.

The real-time unemployment rate uses March Bureau of Labor Statistics data as a baseline, and includes recent workforce dropouts as unemployed. This baseline unemployment count is combined with 5 weeks of initial unemployment claims from the Department of Labor to arrive at the total estimate of unemployed for each state.

This method shows an estimated 35 million unemployed Americans through April 18.

The federal CARES Act and the extensions of its aid provisions have provided financial support to workers and businesses affected by the crisis in order to help them survive the crisis. The coronavirus pandemic has dramatically depressed economic activity, consistent with prior economic research on pandemics, and economic activity will not return completely until there is a vaccine or curative drug for the virus. States now have the tremendous responsibility of executing safe strategies to gradually reopen their economies, balancing the trade-off between healthcare risks and the risks of an economic depression.

Once states are re-opened, they can ease regulatory red tape in order to allow for more efficient business formation and job creation. Re-opening strategies should be followed up by public policy reforms that make it easier to start businesses and find new jobs. State and local red tape should be scaled back, and state tax codes should improve their treatment of operating losses and the depreciation of new business investments.

America needs innovation and growth from the private sector in order to pull the economy out of crisis. This can occur more rapidly if there is policy innovation in the public sector to clear the pathway to economic success. Federal government aid to help businesses survive should not be unwound by state and local red tape. Policymakers can instead take a proactive role in advancing overdue measures to produce a better tax code and lighter regulations.

Michael Lucci is the President and publisher of 50economy.org. He also serves as a Senior Policy Advisor to the State Policy Network. He  was the Vice President of State Projects for the Tax Foundation.

Courtney Fryling has been promoted to assistant vice president, residential real estate market manager for Stockman Bank. She oversees and manages the residential real estate departments for all five Billings Stockman Bank locations.

Courtney Fryling

 Her responsibilities include coordinating the residential real estate activities in Billings and surrounding areas; working directly with the lenders to develop and expand new and existing business relationships; conducting educational seminars for realtors and their affiliates; as well as coordinating marketing strategies to enhance Stockman Bank’s real estate loan portfolio. 

 Fryling, who has been with Stockman Bank since 2015, brings 30 years of real estate lending experience to the position, which includes specializing in conventional, FHA, VA and rural development loans; as well as customer relations and business development. She is a member of the Billings Association of Realtors (BAR), Home Builders Association (HBA), and participates in other local and statewide organizations on behalf of Stockman Bank.

 She is located at 2700 King Avenue West.

By Evelyn Pyburn

While getting a disaster loan through the US Small Business Administration is an important salvation for many businesses suffering losses because of the COVID-19 business closures, waiting weeks for the loan approval process may still be too much for some small businesses to survive.

To bridge that gap Big Sky Economic Development (BSED) has structured a more immediate loan process designed to get cash into the hands of small businesses, as soon as possible.

In talking to many small businesses in the Billings area and asking them what they needed to survive, Dena Johnson, SBDC Regional Director and BSED Entrepreneurial Development, said that they were repeatedly told that weeks will be too long to wait. She said that one businessman of ten years in Billings said, “I won’t make it if funding takes more than a couple weeks… I need cash and I need it fast.”

A BSED team went to work structuring a program that would fit the urgent need, which will utilize funds from a reserve set aside by BSED for just such a purpose.

In a special BSED “zoom” board meeting, on Monday, the program received approval and Brandon Berger, BSED Director of Business Finance, was given authority to administer it.

Berger explained that the board made available $250,000 to make interim loans of up to $15,000 per owner /business who has filed for an SBA Disaster Relief Loan. Upon application the funds should be available within 24 to 48 hours. The one year loan will be charged 2 percent interest. When the SBA loan comes through for the business owner, the first disbursement will be to repay the $15,000.

If the applicant should be refused by the SBA for a disaster loan, the BSED bridge loan will convert to a three-year loan.

Details for the “BSED Stabilization Loan Program” are still being worked out, but the US Small Business Administration is accepting applications for disaster loans now. BSED will announce when they are ready to accept applications.

Since SBA 504 loan clients are being offered an opportunity to defer their principal and interest payments for six months to help cope with the losses suffered from COVID-19 economic impacts, Berger said those clients will not be considered eligible for the BSED Stabilization Loan Program. Many of those clients have already applied for deferred payments. Berger said those applications are coming “fast and furious.” So far they have received 19 requests.

[Forms to apply for SBA loans is available on line at https:// www.sba.gov/ disaster/ apply-for-disaster-loan/ index.html? mc_cid= 00841b9e69& mc_eid= 906d2a23d1]

Berger explained that the $250,000 is being drawn from a reserve of $1 million that BSEDA acquired through the administration of a federal Small Business Credit Initiative. BSEDA was charged with loaning the money to businesses and as the principle and interest was repaid the agency was allowed to retain the funds to use as they see fit to support businesses.

Commercial

KMM Properties Llc/Mr. G’s Quality Construction, 614 N 30th St, Com Addition, $3,800

Rocky Mountain Oil Inc/Custom Concrete Inc., 4041 Grand Ave, Com Addition, $13,000

Sharon Ille Trust/C’s Construction Of Billings, Vinyl Siding 3405 Arlene Circle, Com Fence/Roof/Siding, $57,077

VAP Family Limited Partnership/C’s Construction Of Billings,  Metal Roofing, 905 Main St   Com Fence/Roof/Siding, $46,000

Yellowstone Lutheran Brethren/JMH Construction LLP, 852 Governors Blvd, Com Fence/Roof/Siding, $49,300

Broadstone WI MT ND LLC/Broken Arrow Construction Inc, tear Off Install 50 Mill Membrane 1025 Grand Ave, Com Fence/Roof/Siding, $21,400

Broadstone WI MT ND LLC/Broken Arrow Construction Inc, ear Off Install 50 Mill Membrane 1226 Main St, Com Fence/Roof/Siding, $21,400

McCall Development/McCall Development, 6008 Elysian Rd, Commercial New 3+, $515,000

McCall Development/McCall Development, 6026 Elysian Rd, Commercial New Other, $112,385

State Of Mt Department Of Administration/Precision Plumbing. & Heating. Inc., 701 S 27th St, Com Remodel, $90,000

Valley Federal Credit Union/Master Protection Corporation, 207 N 28th St, Com Remodel,   $4,700

Billings Clinic/Dick Anderson Construction, 2800 10th Ave N, Com Remodel, $213,000

Charles King, 1540 13th St W, Com Remodel,  $80,000

Broadwater Ventures Llc/Neumann Construction, 1114 Broadwater Ave,  Com Remodel,   $8,000

Lutheran Retirement Home Inc/Yellowstone Basin Construction, 3940 Rimrock Rd, Com Remodel, $500

Residential

Aaron Lanford/Big Time Construction, 4703 Silver Creek Trl, Res New Single Family,    $304,535

Big Time Construction/Big Time Construction, 4626 Silver Creek Trl, Res New Single Family,    $319,038

J & M Development LLC/J & M Development, 1821 Sartorie Rd, Res New Single Family,    $205,073

Pedestrian fatalities have been increasing over the past decade, according to the Governors Highway Safety Association, which expresses puzzlement as to why.

In the end, their analysis seems to blame it on drivers shifting from the use of cars to SUVs and pickup trucks. Pedestrians struck by a large SUV are twice as likely to die as those struck by a car.

Another possible reason is the legalization of pot.

Based on data from the first six months of 2019, the Association projected there were 6,590 pedestrian deaths that year, which would be a 5 percent increase over the 6,227 pedestrian deaths in 2018 — the highest number of such deaths in more than 30 years, according to the association.

“In the past 10 years, the number of pedestrian fatalities on our nation’s roadways has increased by more than 50 percent,” said GHSA Executive Director Jonathan Adkins, calling the trend “alarming.”

Pedestrians are projected to account for 17 percent of all traffic deaths in 2019, compared to 12 percent in 2009.

While nationally the increase (based on 2017 data) was 35 percent over a decade, in Montana the increase in pedestrian fatalities has been 20 percent – increasing from 5 to 6 in 2018.

The report mentions that of “[t]he seven states (Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, Oregon, Washington) and DC that legalized recreational use of marijuana between 2012 and 2016 reported a collective 16.4 percent increase in pedestrian fatalities for the first six months of 2017 versus the first six months of 2016, whereas all other states reported a collective 5.8 percent decrease in pedestrian fatalities.”  But so far the data is inconsistent about the impact of pot legalization.

The Association’s report states, “In recent years, the number of pedestrian fatalities in the United States has grown sharply. During the 10-year period from 2008 to 2017, the number of pedestrian fatalities increased by 35 percent (from 4,414 deaths in 2008 to 5,977 deaths in 2017); meanwhile, the combined number of all other traffic deaths declined by six percent. Along with the increase in the number of pedestrian fatalities, pedestrian deaths as a percentage of total motor vehicle crash deaths increased from 12 percent in 2008 to 16 percent in 2017. . . . GHSA estimates the nationwide number of pedestrians killed in motor vehicle crashes in 2018 was 6,227, an increase of four percent from 2017.”

Unmentioned in the association’s conclusion is the fact that there has been an all-out press by the federal government trying to encourage, if not force, more people to walk and cycle rather than drive. If there are more pedestrians as a consequence, would not that increase explain the increase in the number of pedestrian / vehicle accidents?

According to the report:

—25 states (and DC) had increases in pedestrian fatalities;

—23 states had decreases; and

—Two states remained the same

— Five states (Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia and Texas) accounted for almost half — 46 percent — of all pedestrian deaths. On a per capita basis the highest is New Mexico, Arizona, Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina, Hawaii,

—  New Mexico had the highest rate of pedestrian deaths per resident population, while New Hampshire had the lowest.

— Increases in pedestrian fatalities are occurring largely at night.

The study suggests that pedestrian fatalities may be linked to population growth in specific cities and states.

It also states: “The increasing shift in U.S. vehicle sales away from passenger cars to light trucks (with light trucks generally causing more severe pedestrian impacts than cars) is also a factor. Although passenger cars are the largest category of vehicles involved in fatal pedestrian crashes, the number of pedestrian fatalities involving SUVs increased at a faster rate — 50 percent – from 2013 to 2017 compared to passenger cars, which increased by 30 percent.”

An analysis of states with an increased number of fatalities compared to those with a reduced number, interestingly reveals that most of the states with increases are southern states, while those with lower rates are northern states.

One analysis of the data by ………..suggests that the reason for increased pedestrian fatalities has to do with the trend of states legalizing the use of marijuana and the fact that more pedestrians and drivers are under its influence.

Despite the state’s number of SUVs and pickups on the highways, Montana, on a per capita basis comes in just below the mid-point of a ranking of the states in terms of pedestrian fatalities.