Business Owners Optimistic

Business owners are optimistic about future business conditions and expect the recession to be short-lived, announced the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) last week.

The organization’s Small Business Optimism Index increased 3.5 points in May to 94.4, a strong improvement from April’s 90.9 reading. Eight of the 10 Index components improved in May and two declined. The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased seven points to 82. Reports of expected business conditions in the next six months increased 5 points to a net 34%, following a 24-point increase in April.

Said Montana State Director for NFIB Director, Riley Johnson, “It’s very encouraging to see eight of 10 index components having improved over the previous month’s findings, especially in the plans to increase employment and in the plans to increase inventory categories. It’s important to remember that this poll was taken before last Friday’s signing of the federal law giving more flexibility to small-business owners who took out Paycheck Protection Program loans. I see more than just a glimmer or two of hope for an improving economy, and, coronavirus willing, a speedier recovery than originally thought.”

NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The SBET is one of the few archival data sets on small business, particularly when research questions address business operations rather than opinions. Today, it’s the largest, longest-running data set on small business economic conditions available.

“As states begin to reopen, small businesses continue to navigate the economic landscape rocked by COVID-19 and new government policies,” said NFIB’s Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “It’s still uncertain when consumers will feel comfortable returning to small businesses and begin spending again, but owners are taking the necessary precautions to reopen safely.”

Real sales expectations in the next three months increased 18 points to a net negative 24%. Expectations about future sales are beginning to rebound after April’s lowest reading in survey history of a net negative 42%.

Fifty-two percent reported capital outlays in the last six months. Of those making expenditures, 35% reported spending on new equipment (down one point), 20% acquired vehicles (down one point), and 15% improved or expanded facilities (up two points). Five percent acquired new buildings or land for expansion and 10% spent money for new fixtures and furniture.

Twenty percent of owners are planning capital outlays in the next few months. Any extensive damage from recent protests will produce significant expenditures that were unexpected for some small business owners.

A net negative 19% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down eight points from April. Retail sales have declined significantly in the past three months. Consumer income was up significantly due to government programs assistance, but consumers, for the most part, could not get out to spend it unless they spent it online. The change in spending behavior produced a record-high savings rate of 33%. As the economy opens, this money will be spent.

Other key findings from the survey include:

—Earnings trends declined six points to a net negative 26%. Among owners reporting weaker profits, 46% blamed weak sales, 12% blamed usual seasonal changes, 9% cited price changes, 4% cited labor costs, and 4% cited material costs.

—Five percent of owners reported thinking it’s a good time to expand, up two points from April.

—The net negative percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes improved 18 points to a net negative 24% of owners.

—A net 14% (seasonally adjusted) reported raising compensation (down 2 points) and a net 10% plan to do so in the coming months (up 3 points).

As reported in last week’s monthly jobs report, the small business labor market weakened further in the February-April period, with May survey respondents reporting reducing employment by 0.17 workers per firm in the prior three months. Most of the workers that were displaced (about 80%) expect to be rehired according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, generous unemployment benefits are making it harder for some firms to re-call workers and fill open positions.

The airlines that operate at the Billings Logan International Airport began requiring that all passengers wear a face mask from the check-in process until they deplane. The order comes from Delta, United, Frontier, Alaska and American. Director of Aviation and Transit, Kevin Ploehn, said, “  For the future, this will be the new normal, and frankly, if the airlines are going to entice folks back into the sky they need to do this so people can feel safe.”

Business.org compared median salaries to the cost-of-living in each state to find which states are the best (and worst) for affording housing costs. 

They found that: 

* In Montana, it takes 41.5 hours to afford the median one-bedroom rent at $700 per month. 

* Montana ranks #6 for having the best wages compared to cost of living in the US. 

* The median salary in Montana is $35,080. 

From Oil Patch Hotline

Two major Wall Street banks are projecting higher prices for crude oil later this year because of production cuts by OPEC and hundreds of wells shut down in leading oil producing states of Texas and North Dakota.

UBS sees Brent rising to $43 a barrel by the end of the years because of lower prices and rising to $55 a barrel by mid-2021.

Goldman Sachs upped its Brent forecast from $52.50 to $55.63 a barrel  and raised West Texas Intermediate crude from $48.50 to $51.38 a barrel for 2021.

“Oil production has started to decline quickly from a combination of scale back in activity, shut-ins and core-OPEC/Russia production cuts. Demand is also beginning to recover from a low base, led by a restarting Chinese economy and increasing transportation demand in developed market economies,” Goldman Sachs said.

“We still expect oil demand to contract strongly this quarter, though not as much as we did before; we now estimate minus 15 million barrels per day  year on year for the second quarter, versus minus 20 mbpd previously,” UBS said.

The bank expects global oil supply to contract by nearly 6 mbpd year on year in the second quarter, citing forced production shut-ins in North and South America as current low price environment fails to cover operating costs.

During early trading May 6 the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI had risen to $23.62 a barrel and Brent was up to $29.81 a barrel.

Yellowstone County’s Disaster & Emergency Services Coordinator K. C. Williams has received a letter from the Department of Military Affairs for Montana announcing that his application for a grant to improve cyber security for Yellowstone County has been approved.

Official notification will probably not come until about September, said Williams, but at least tentatively the Senior Advisory Committee and the Homeland Security Advisor has selected Yellowstone County’s Cyber Security project for inclusion in Montana’s application to the Department of Homeland Security and FEMA for fiscal 2020. (Emergency services in Montana operate under the auspices of the Department of Military Affairs.)

The $75,000 grant will allow the county to make the needed improvements in a more complete, holistic approach than the phases that the county would otherwise have had to pursue. The end results will be much better, said Williams, and it won’t have to be funded by Yellowstone County taxpayers.

A few months ago, Jeff Slavick, Director of Information Technology in Yellowstone County, submitted a proposal to County Commissioners to begin the process of updating the county’s cyber security which he said was woefully inadequate. Upon learning this, Williams pointed out that improving cyber security of government agencies was a high priority of Homeland Security and they were making grants available.

Williams submitted an application for Slavick’s proposal. Some security the county has to provide by law, but much of it is just matter of good stewardship.

“It is just a better idea to be more secure” with all of the county’s electronic documents and data storage, said Williams, explaining that the county interacts with a lot of government agencies, as well as the civilian population, all of which are subject to potential cyber threats.

The grant will probably have an effective date of October 1. Williams said that he expects that the federal government will require that the project be completed within a year from the effective date.

KLJ Engineering welcomed Brenna Moloney to their Billings office.

Brenna Moloney

Moloney joins KLJ as an archaeologist. She earned a master’s in archaeology from Wayne State University, as well as a master’s in geography from Eastern Michigan University. She has ten years of experience in cultural resources.

Anderson Towing at 706 Central Ave. in  Billings has become a U-Haul neighborhood dealer to serve the Billings community.

Anderson Towing will offer essential services like U-Haul trucks, trailers, towing equipment, moving supplies and in-store pick-up for boxes.

Anderson Towing on Central owner Cameron Cochran is proud to team with the industry leader in do-it-yourself moving and self-storage to better meet the demands of Yellowstone County.

U-Haul has teamed with independent dealers to offer moving equipment since 1945. With the COVID-19 outbreak creating challenging times for small businesses, more than 20,000 dealers across the U.S. and Canada are creating supplemental income through their U-Haul partnership. When a customer rents from a U-Haul dealer, they are directly supporting an independent small business in their community.

As an essential service provider, U-Haul stores and dealers continue to serve the public. Their products are utilized by First Responders; delivery companies bringing needed supplies to people’s homes; small businesses trying to remain afloat; college students; and countless other dependent groups – in addition to the household mover.

U-Haul Truck Share 24/7 allows customers to create an online account and pick up their truck at any hour using only their smartphone with photo feature and GPS. Trained Live Verify agents interact with customers online, enabling them to skip the lines and go straight to their truck.

Reserve U-Haul products at Anderson Towing by calling (406) 545-1870 or visit https:// www.uhaul.com/ Locations/ Truck-Rentals- near-Billings- MT-59101.

By Colter Brown, Northern Ag Network

Lawmakers reached an agreement [last week] to allow agriculture to participate in the Small Business Administration’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program. The agreement is part of a larger deal, a $484 billion coronavirus package to extend the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The agreement also includes funds for small lenders and community banks, funds for national coronavirus testing and funding for hospitals.

Previously, the Small Business Administration had deemed agricultural producers ineligible for the EIDL. Montana’s senatorial delegation pushed for the change to the SBA program. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell credited Montana Senator Steve Daines and other senators from rural states for making it clear that farmers and ranchers are eligible for the program.

Earlier this month, Daines sent a letter to the Small Business Association urging them to grant farms, ranches, and agriculture businesses the opportunity to apply for the EIDL program. Upon passage of the bill, Daines commented that, “This is great news for Montana’s farmers and ranchers as they head into the spring planting season. Ensuring our farmers and ranchers have access to this program is critical to making sure they can continue to maintain our nation’s food supply chain during the Coronavirus outbreak.”

The $60 billion of funding, including an additional $10 billion for emergency EIDL grants, will replenish EIDL program for small businesses. This is in addition to the $10 billion Daines secured for EIDL in the Phase Three Coronavirus Economic Relief Package.

This is not Phase Four of Congress’ response to the coronavirus outbreak. This bipartisan deal is a boost in funding from the Coronavirus Economic Relief Package which was signed into law on March 27th, 2020 to protect public health, and provide relief for small businesses, workers and families.

Senator Jon Tester also pushed for the change to allow farms and ranches to qualify for the EIDL program. “Montana’s family farms and ranches are the lifeblood of our state’s agriculture, which is our state’s number one industry and is vital to rural communities across Big Sky Country,” said Tester. “The fact is our independent ag producers were just scraping by before this pandemic, so I fought to make sure this program was expanded to include them because these folks need certainty as we head into planting season. I am not going to let Washington leave rural America behind.”

The provision means ag businesses can now apply for low-interest loans through the program and may also qualify for the $10,000 emergency grants. To be eligible, ag businesses will have to show that they have been hurt by the economic downturn caused by coronavirus.

By Michael Lucci, The Center Square

Real-time unemployment rates climbed across all states during the week ending April 18, based on data from the Department of Labor. A new wave of 4.4 million American workers filed for unemployment insurance benefits, bringing the total count of initial unemployment claims up to 26.4 million in the last five weeks of Department of Labor data.

Montana’s real-time unemployment rate was 18.7 percent. Nationally it had climbed to 21.4 percent on the initial claims data, based upon 50 Economy labor market estimates. Initial claims have decreased week-over-week for three weeks in a row. However, the total count of unemployed American workers continues to climb by millions per week even as new claims slow down.

Real-time unemployment rates vary widely across the states from Kentucky (31.2%) Pennsylvania (29.1%) and Michigan (28.7%) at the high end to Wyoming (12.5%) Utah (11.7%) and South Dakota (9.3%) on the low end.

The real-time unemployment rate uses March Bureau of Labor Statistics data as a baseline, and includes recent workforce dropouts as unemployed. This baseline unemployment count is combined with 5 weeks of initial unemployment claims from the Department of Labor to arrive at the total estimate of unemployed for each state.

This method shows an estimated 35 million unemployed Americans through April 18.

The federal CARES Act and the extensions of its aid provisions have provided financial support to workers and businesses affected by the crisis in order to help them survive the crisis. The coronavirus pandemic has dramatically depressed economic activity, consistent with prior economic research on pandemics, and economic activity will not return completely until there is a vaccine or curative drug for the virus. States now have the tremendous responsibility of executing safe strategies to gradually reopen their economies, balancing the trade-off between healthcare risks and the risks of an economic depression.

Once states are re-opened, they can ease regulatory red tape in order to allow for more efficient business formation and job creation. Re-opening strategies should be followed up by public policy reforms that make it easier to start businesses and find new jobs. State and local red tape should be scaled back, and state tax codes should improve their treatment of operating losses and the depreciation of new business investments.

America needs innovation and growth from the private sector in order to pull the economy out of crisis. This can occur more rapidly if there is policy innovation in the public sector to clear the pathway to economic success. Federal government aid to help businesses survive should not be unwound by state and local red tape. Policymakers can instead take a proactive role in advancing overdue measures to produce a better tax code and lighter regulations.

Michael Lucci is the President and publisher of 50economy.org. He also serves as a Senior Policy Advisor to the State Policy Network. He  was the Vice President of State Projects for the Tax Foundation.

Courtney Fryling has been promoted to assistant vice president, residential real estate market manager for Stockman Bank. She oversees and manages the residential real estate departments for all five Billings Stockman Bank locations.

Courtney Fryling

 Her responsibilities include coordinating the residential real estate activities in Billings and surrounding areas; working directly with the lenders to develop and expand new and existing business relationships; conducting educational seminars for realtors and their affiliates; as well as coordinating marketing strategies to enhance Stockman Bank’s real estate loan portfolio. 

 Fryling, who has been with Stockman Bank since 2015, brings 30 years of real estate lending experience to the position, which includes specializing in conventional, FHA, VA and rural development loans; as well as customer relations and business development. She is a member of the Billings Association of Realtors (BAR), Home Builders Association (HBA), and participates in other local and statewide organizations on behalf of Stockman Bank.

 She is located at 2700 King Avenue West.