By Scott Hodge, Tax Foundation

Underlying every fiscal policy discussion in Washington is the question of progressivity: how much should tax and spending policy redistribute from high-income households to low-income households?

This debate is often more rhetorical than substantive, but a recent study by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) fills this void by presenting data showing that the current fiscal system—both taxes and direct federal benefits—is very progressive and very redistributive.

The CBO study estimates the impact of federal fiscal policy on household incomes in 2019 (the most recent data). It does this by contrasting how much households benefited from social insurance programs (e.g., Social Security and Medicare) and means-tested transfer programs (e.g., Medicaid, SNAP, and Supplemental Security Income) with how much they paid in total federal taxes—including individual income taxes, payroll taxes, corporate income taxes, estate taxes, and various excise taxes.

These policies lift the incomes of many households (who receive more in federal benefits than they pay in total federal taxes) while reducing the income of others (who pay more in federal taxes than they receive in direct federal benefits). CBO’s data allows us to measure the impact of these policies on the average household within various income groups and then aggregate the results to measure how these policies redistribute income between groups of households.

To be sure, households do benefit from other federal programs such as national defense, highway spending, and public education, but CBO does not include the benefits of such programs in this exercise. The study is solely focused on fiscal policy that directly impacts household incomes.

Federal benefit programs and taxes can either raise market incomes or reduce them. For example, in 2019, households in the lowest quintile paid almost no federal income taxes but received nearly $22,000 in transfer benefits. As a result, these policies more than doubled their household incomes, an increase of 126 percent.

The story is very similar for households in the second and middle quintiles, although not as extreme. After netting their federal taxes paid, direct federal benefit policies raised the incomes of households in the second quintile by 39 percent and the incomes of households in the middle quintile by 11 percent.

The story changes completely for average households in the top two quintiles. On average, they paid more in taxes in 2019 than they received in direct federal benefits. Households in the fourth quintile, for example, saw their incomes fall by 4 percent, while households in the highest quintile saw their incomes fall by 21 percent.

At the very top of the income scale, the story is even more dramatic. Households in the top 1 percent paid an average of roughly $600,000 in federal taxes and received about $15,000 in federal benefits. As a result, federal tax and spending policies reduced the incomes of households in the top 1 percent by nearly one-third (30 percent).

It is interesting to note that federal benefit programs are distributed relatively evenly across the income scale, while federal taxes skew very heavily to higher-income earners.

Federal fiscal policy increased the overall income for households in the lowest quintile by $566 billion in 2019. Households in the second quintile gained $390 billion in income while households in the middle quintile gained $187 billion in income.

Combined, the first three quintiles gained more than $1.1 trillion in income thanks to federal benefit policies, even after netting out their federal taxes paid.

On the other end of the income scale, progressive fiscal policy reduced the incomes of households in the fourth quintile by $109 billion in 2019. However, this is a fraction of the nearly $1.7 trillion that households in the highest quintile saw their incomes fall due to federal fiscal policy. Of this amount, some $702 billion came from households in the top 1 percent alone.

Overall, federal fiscal policy lowered the incomes of the top 40 percent of American households by roughly $1.8 trillion in 2019. Of this, more than $1.1 trillion was redistributed to lift the incomes of households in the bottom 60 percent of the population, while the remaining $656 billion went to pay for other federal spending.

The cost of prescription drugs will likely increase 42-57 percent for retired Americans enrolled in Medicare’s Part D prescription coverage in 2024. The reason is the manipulation of the market by government which encourages insurers to shift costs from one group of users to be borne by another.

A change in the Inflation Reduction Act, which reduces co-pays for some, especially those with chronic conditions, shifts that cost to about a fourth of Medicare recipients who exceed the threshold of the new $2000 cap and will be expected to cover 60-80 percent of their prescription costs.

Earlier reports projected slight premium declines across Part D plans next year, but the HealthView report, published in November 2023, contrasts sharply with a July projection by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), the federal agency that administers the Medicare program, 

CMS said there would be a 1.8 percent decline in Part D premiums for 2024, because of “reforms” in the Inflation Reduction Act. However, HealthView forecasts major hikes for retirees in states with large senior populations. They projected average increases ranging from $269 in Texas to $510 in New York.

The Inflation Reduction Act lowered the maximum out-of-pocket spending cap for Medicare Part D prescription drugs from $7,050 in 2023, to $2,000 in 2025, reducing co-pays for some, especially those with chronic conditions. However, financial liability will shift to insurers expected to cover 60-80 percent of costs once patients hit the new $2,000 cap.

With roughly a quarter of Medicare recipients exceeding this threshold, HealthView analysis suggests carriers will raise premiums to account for their increased coverage requirements. The higher premiums are a way for insurance companies to cover the expected increase in costs.

So, while the Inflation Reduction Act aims to lower overall healthcare costs for retirees, it may actually increase 2024-2025 Part D premiums for 75 percent of enrollees seeing no co-pay relief.

Epoch Times reports, “Americans pay for prescription drugs over 2.5 times more than other high-income nations. One in five seniors alter medication use due to high prescription costs, a May 2023 national survey found. They either skipped, delayed, took less medication, or took someone else’s medications.”

HealthView analysis shows 2024 increases could outpace the average retiree’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) by 70 percent – posing real financial challenges.

The most recent release of NFIB’s monthly Small Business Economic Trends is the 50th anniversary issue, but it is not finding small business owners in a mood for celebration.

“This month marks the 50th anniversary of NFIB’s small business economic survey,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “The October data shows that small businesses are still recovering, and owners are not optimistic about better business conditions. Small business owners are not growing their inventories as labor and energy costs are not falling, making it a gloomy outlook for the remainder of the year.”

Added Ronda Wiggers, Montana state director for NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business), “I give our state credit for passing policies that have cushioned the blow from what our economy has been throwing at small businesses with such things as lowering the personal income tax rate and boosting the business equipment tax exemption to $1 million from $300,000. Every dollar matters and those two accomplishments are enormous. Now, if Congress can get a move on and pass Senator Daines’s Main Street Tax Certainty Act, we can rapidly turn things around.”

Key findings include:

* Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down one point from last month.

* Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months was unchanged from September at a net negative 43% (seasonally adjusted).

* Forty-three percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, unchanged from September and remains historically very high.

* Seasonally adjusted, a net 24% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up one point from September.

“Today, in the full maturity of its 50 years,” according to this one-page history of it, “NFIB’s monthly Small Business Economic Trends (SBET) report is the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street enterprises that employ half of all workers, generate more net new jobs than large corporations, and gave most of us the first start in our working life.” The SBET (Optimism Index) is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.

Get in the spirit. Visit Moss Mansion’s  ‘Classic Christmas’ tree display! There are 13 trees, decorated by local nonprofits and sponsoring businesses! Every visitor gets to vote for their favorite tree, and the winners will win $150 toward their charity of choice. The mansion is open from 11 am – 3 pm. Come anytime during for a self-paced tour. Or take the guided tour which is offered at 1 pm.  No reservations required. For more information go to:  mossmansion.com

The Montana Women’s Run announced donations to women’s and children’s health and fitness programs in the Billings community from funds raised this year.  With this year’s contributions, the Montana Women’s Run has donated over $1,727,500 to local organizations that promote women’s and children’s health and fitness.

This year’s funds are donated to six worthy causes, including the YWCA, $23,000; Billings Clinic Foundation, $26,000; Rocky Mountain College Women’s Cross-Country and Track Scholarship Programs, $5,000; MSU-Billings Women’s Cross-Country and Track Scholarship Programs, $5,000; Billings YMCA, $23,000, Montana Amateur Sports for Yellowstone Elementary School Cross Country Race and Big Sky Fit Kids, $8,000.

The YWCA provides services to women through their Gateway House, domestic violence training, transitional living facility and other programs that are not otherwise available in the Billings community. The YWCA has partnered with the Montana Women’s Run for many years.

Billings Clinic’s Women’s Wellness program provides health screenings, including mammograms, pap smears, and blood panels, for women who are underinsured or without insurance. Since 2001, the year the Montana Women’s Run began donating to the Billings Clinic Women’s Wellness Fund, the fund has helped over 4,000 women by providing payment for preventative screenings, including mammograms, pap smears, office visits and lab panels.

Rocky Mountain College uses the funds to award a scholarship to a female in its cross-country or track programs. Rocky has supported the Montana Women’s Run for decades by providing space for the event’s 8-week Getting Started Clinics and the Kids’ Run. Awarding the scholarship to a female cross-country or track runner recognizes the Montana Women’s Run commitment to health and fitness.

MSU-B also uses the funds for a scholarship for a female cross-country or track runner.  The women on the MSU-B women’s cross-country and track teams have served as positive role models to all young people in our community, competing in and volunteering for the run years after graduation.

By Chris Woodward, The Center Square

Montana’s gas prices are falling, but Montanans are still paying slightly above the national average.

The average price for a gallon of regular gas in Montana is $3.37 compared to the national average of $3.33, according to AAA. The state’s average was $3.49 a week ago.

Drivers can expect to see the lower prices into the holiday, AAA said.

“Drivers this Thanksgiving can expect cheaper gas prices,” according AAA spokesman Andrew Gross. Ten states now have sub $3 a gallon averages, and more will join soon.”

Montana counties seeing the highest averages include Petroleum ($3.69), Powder River ($3.67), Sheridan ($3.65), and Glacier ($3.56) counties.

Counties with some of the cheapest averages are Cascade ($3.28), Garfield ($3.29), and Silver Bow ($3.31) counties.

“Lower gas demand, alongside declining oil prices, has contributed to pushing pump prices down,” AAA said.

The Montana Cowboy Hall of Fame & Western Heritage Center (MCHF & WHC) has announced their 16th class of inductions into the Montana Cowboy Hall of Fame. The inductees were chosen from a field of candidates nominated by the general public. Inductees are honored for their notable contributions to the history and culture of Montana.

“The Hall of Fame exists to honor those who have made an impact in their part of the state and represent Montana’s authentic Western heritage for future generations,” said DuWayne Wilson, MCHF & WHC president. “Our volunteer trustees around Montana vote on nominations that come from the district in which they reside.”

The MCHF & WHC board of directors has designated 12 trustee districts across the state from which up to 20 trustees may be appointed. Nomination criteria established by the board for the Class of 2024 inductions allowed the election of one Living Inductee and one Legacy Inductee from each of the 12 districts.

District 1 (Daniels, Phillips, Roosevelt, Sheridan, & Valley Counties):  Living: Henry “Gary” Danelson of Scobey; Legacy: David C Funk of Frazer.

District 2 (Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Prairie, Richland, & Wibaux Counties):  Living: Harold Lee Isaacs of Jordan; Legacy: Donald Goodman “Don” Holt of Sidney.

District 3 (Carter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River, Rosebud, & Treasure Counties): Living: Wayne M. Morford of Miles City; Legacy: Miles City Bucking Horse Sale of Miles City.

District 4 (Blaine, Chouteau, Hill, & Liberty Counties): Living: Leon LaSalle of Laredo; Legacy: Clarence Basil Cuts The Rope of Hays.

District 5 (Cascade, Glacier, Pondera, Teton, & Toole Counties): Living: Alvin “Dutch” Lunak & Stuntmen of Blackfeet Country of Valier; Legacy: Joe DeYong of Great Falls.

District 6 (Fergus, Golden Valley, Judith Basin, Musselshell, Petroleum, & Wheatland Counties): Living:  Durl J. Gibbs of Buffalo; Legacy: Donald Elton “Don” Abarr of Grass Range 

District 7  (Big Horn, Carbon, Stillwater, Sweet Grass, & Yellowstone Counties): Living: Lynn “Jonnie” Jonckowski of Billings; Legacy: Elmer E. “Slim” Kobold of Kirby.

District 8 (Broadwater, Jefferson, & Lewis and Clark Counties): Living: Lenore McKelvey Puhek of Helena; Legacy: Paul B. Hart of Helena.

District 9 (Gallatin, Meagher, & Park Counties): Living: Delbert & Janice High of Bozeman; Legacy: Raymond P. “Ray” Ansotegui of Livingston.

District 10 (Flathead, Lake, Lincoln, & Sanders Counties): Living: Betty Mae Wemple Schall of Arlee; Legacy: Alvin Merritt of Pablo.

District 11: (Mineral, Missoula, & Ravalli Counties): Living: Paul Zarzyski of Missoula; Legacy: William E. “Bill” Mytty of Lolo.

District 12: (Deer Lodge, Beaverhead, Silver Bow, Granite, Madison, & Powell Counties): Living: Walter Elroy “Walt” Shaw of Cardwell; Legacy: John William “Pat” McDonald of Philipsburg.

The honorees will be inducted during the MCHF Annual Induction Ceremony & Western Heritage Gathering February 10, 2024, in Great Falls at the Heritage Inn.

In Montana the State and Local Governments collected $5,148 per person in 2021. The collections were 30th highest – in other words, 30 states collected more in tax revenues per person in 30 other states.

New York collected the most at $10,266. New York was, however, exceeded by Washington DC where collections were $13,278. California collects $9,175 per person.

State and local government in Alaska collect the least at $4,192 per person. Alabama was second to the last collecting $4,245 per person. Tennessee ranked 48th pulling in $4,272 in revenues for each citizen, followed by Florida at $4,405 in state and local government revenue collected per person.

Among Montana neighbors, North Dakota ranks the highest collecting $7,005 per person in state and local government taxes. Idaho ranks 41st, collecting $4,650 per person. Wyoming collects $5,213 per person, ranking it 28 and South Dakota ranks 38th, collecting $4,677 per person.

The Tax Foundation explained some of the figures stating, “Alaska is an anomaly here: while the state imposes incredibly low tax burdens on residents, its severance taxes generate substantial revenue that often yield relatively high collections per capita. FY 2021, however, captured a period of significant fluctuations in oil markets, from which the industry—and Alaska’s revenues—have since recovered. Similar effects are evident in other resource-dependent states, like North Dakota and Wyoming, which had markedly lower per capita collections in FY 2021 than in years prior, or (based on their own revenue data) since. These states export much of their tax burden, and there was simply less to export that year.”

The Tax Foundation further commented, “It’s worth noting that severance taxes are only one of many examples of the “tax exporting” that states engage in. Travel taxes—such as hotel, car rental, and meal taxes—also disproportionately impact nonvoting nonresidents who have few means of redress. As a result, states that generate substantial amounts of tax revenue from tourism may also show tax collections per capita that are higher than the actual tax burden that falls on the in-state population. Taxes on businesses may also be exported, at least in part, to investors across the country, and to employees wherever they are located. It is important to keep both legal incidence and economic incidence in mind when evaluating the true costs of any tax.

State and local governments fared well in FY 2021, but with all the ways our world has changed since the start of the pandemic, that feels like eons ago. Even though these maps are always limited by the timing of Census data releases, it’s fair to ask where things stand now. And fortunately, while we can’t go state by state, we do have quarterly data for the national aggregate of state and local tax collections through FY 2023.

Since FY 2019, the last full fiscal year before the pandemic, state and local tax collections have risen more than 27 percent. Much of that gain is subsumed by inflation, but even after adjusting for inflation, state and local tax revenues are more than 7 percent higher than they were pre-pandemic.

Revenues soared in FY 2021, jumping a full 10 percent (inflation-adjusted) higher than pre-pandemic figures, edging up even higher in FY 2022 (to 12 points up) before coming down to earth a bit in FY 2023. But this should not be alarming. Partly, it is a reversion to the mean: state revenues skyrocketed, and it’s okay for them to level off or even decline a little, as long as the new totals remain higher (in real terms) than before. Additionally, almost every state has adopted tax cuts since the start of 2021, including 25 that have cut individual income tax rates since then. Legislators wanted to return some of the revenue growth to the taxpayers—and even with that, revenues remain up in real terms.

Recent revenue declines, moreover, are concentrated in California and New York, high-tax states with intense reliance on high marginal income tax rates. Not only are these states more vulnerable to income fluctuations among high earners—an important source of volatility—but in an increasingly mobile environment, they’re driving some of those high earners to other states as well. While only state (not local) tax revenue data are available at a state-by-state level for more recent fiscal years, New York and California’s combined state tax revenue is up 2.9 percent in real terms since FY 2019, compared to 11.3 percent growth in the rest of the country.

I appreciated my time spent on this 95 mill property tax issue with you , the Dept. of Revenue and the Lobbyist for the School Organizations.  I am dis-appointed with the Supreme Court ruling but will abide with it.  The educational value  of researching and understanding how the school, local government and state school funding is calculated on a tax bill was worth the effort.

But Governor, Your press release on this ruling you stated that you are committed to long-term reform “including holding the line on local spending that drives property tax increases.”

You and the ruling just ordered the Commissioners of Beaverhead County to levy an ADDITIONAL  $602,677 on the taxpayers of Beaverhead County.  49 of the 56 Counties across Montana fought hard to control property tax increases this year only to be challenged by You and your Dept. of Revenue to levy an additional $78,774,449 on a statewide level.  So much for driving property tax increases.

Beaverhead County taxpayers need to know that

Beaverhead Co. Accessed  19.65 mills LESS than last year.

City of Dillon  Accessed 24.14  mills LESS than last year.

School Dist. #10  Accessed  29.67 mills LESS than last year.

BCHS Accessed  17.10  mills LESS than last year.

This was all done by local government trying to control the increase of property taxes by following state law.  MCA 15-10-420

In addition, the Agencies  in Beaverhead County that have VOTED MILL ATHORITY, the Boards of those agencies decided NOT TO LEVY the full amount this year because of the extreme increases that we are seeing now.  These decisions kept $348,355 off of the current year tax bills.  Check your tax bills and you will see all levied mills are  less than last year.  Now, the only line on your tax that will remain the same is the first line called State School Levy.

This is where $600,000 of your property tax dollars will go.   This will increase revenue to the State by 34% over last year, almost $99,000,000 State wide.

One final question that needs to be researched,  “Did the local school districts just receive a $99 million windfall statewide???”  When your local school board reply’s NO, does that mean the $99 million really goes into  the State General Fund????

Thanks for allowing me to serve.

Mike McGinley

Beaverhead County Commissioner

Dear Editor:

I would like to thank our Montana Public Service Commissioners Brown, Fielder, Pinocci, O’Donnell, and Bukacek for their diligence in serving and protecting the rights and safety of Montanans.

They have recently ruled that NorthWestern Energy (NWE) is to provide a free, no cost Opt-Out for their installation of Smart/Advanced Meters, including no fees for keeping our old meters or monthly charges. 

Unfortunately, NWE has not given customers proper informed consent with which to make informed decisions.  Smart Meters have never been proven to be safe for human use and exposure. Thousands of research studies indicate harm from long term exposure to this type of constant high pulsed microwave radiation coming out of Smart Meters. These meters will also catch on fire and explode more easily and emit higher levels of dirty electricity.  Smart Meters are contraindicated for those with chronic health conditions and certain medical implants. You can research these negative health and safety effects at https:// www. takebackyourpower.net/ research/

In August 2021, in a historic ruling, a Circuit Court of Appeals in D.C. has ruled that the FCC’s safety guidelines for microwave radiation was inadequate to protect human health.  Yet, Utilities are still continuing to install Smart Meters which violate not only our health and safety, but also constitutional rights to privacy with 24/7 collection of private utility data.  Eventually Smart Meters can be used to track and control your carbon footprints.

Fortunately, we can Opt-Out of these risks by contacting NorthWestern Energy 1-800-486-4280 for an Opt-Out Application.

Mae Woo

Billings, MT

Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council) president & CEO Karen Kerrigan issued the following response to an announcement by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that the agency will again delay implementation of the lower threshold for 1099-K reporting (which went from $20,000 to $600 in the American Rescue Plan) for the 2023 tax year.

“The IRS was wise to make this decision given the potential for massive taxpayer confusion and the general lack of awareness and clarity on the new 1099-K threshold. At least 44 million new forms were expected to flood into the mailboxes of unsuspecting citizens who sell used items online, for example, and many taxpayers receiving these forms would not be required to do anything. But how are they supposed to know that? The absurdity of the new reporting threshold has created a massive make-work scheme for payment apps and online marketplace. It has generated significant waste and depleted resources within both the private sector and at the IRS.”

“Congress and President Biden need to be advancing policies that make things simpler, more efficient, and less costly. The new threshold requirement does exactly the opposite. While we are pleased that the IRS has once again delayed implementation of the new threshold, Congress should repeal this intrusive reporting scheme by passing the Stop the Nosy Obsession with Online Payments Act (SNOOP Act) either separately or as advanced by the House Ways and Means Committee in a broader tax relief and reform package this past June.”

In its announcement, the IRS stated that it will phase in the reporting requirement, and is planning for a $5,000 threshold for tax year 2024 and will eventually get to the $600 reporting threshold enacted under the American Rescue Plan (ARP).