Government

Like Most Red States, Montana’s Unemployment Rate Plunges

9 February 2022
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Montana’s unemployment rate hit a new record low in December, dropping another 0.3 percentage points to end the year at 2.5%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The number of unemployed Montanans is at its lowest level since BLS began the data series in 1976.

Wallet Hub reports that Montana ranks four in the nation as states whose unemployment rates have bounced back the most. And, Montana ranks fifth among states with the lowest unemployment, based on Bureau of Labor data. It is among sixteen of the top 20 states reporting the most jobs recovered since COVID-related lockdowns began in March 2020 – all of which are led by Republican governors.

The State of Montana has not only recovered all jobs lost since the start of the pandemic, but also grown beyond that level, with 531,040 Montanans employed in December 2021 compared to 521,657 in March 2020.

Montana Governor Greg Gianforte credits his Montana Comback Plan. He said, “After just one year, our Montana Comeback Plan is working. Our unemployment rate is the lowest it’s ever been, and more Montanans are working than ever before in our state’s history. With lower taxes and responsible, responsive government, our economy is going again, we’re open for business, and Montanans are back to work. Great work, Montana!”

The number of unemployed Montanans also dropped to a record low of 13,689, falling by 1,719 from November.

Montana’s total employment hit a record high in December at 531,040. Total employment, which includes payroll, agricultural, and self-employed workers, grew by 3,137 in December, the largest single month gain in 2021. Payroll employment also increased by 3,200 with strong job growth in retail.

Since Governor Gianforte was sworn in, total employment has grown by 20,568 jobs.

Montana’s labor force increased to 544,729 in December, the third highest level in the state’s history. The number of available workers in Montana’s labor force, a critical metric during the current labor shortage, increased by 1,418.

The unemployment rate for the U.S. dropped to 3.9%. Overall, 24 Republican-led states reported recovering at least two-thirds of their lost jobs by December 2021, according to BLS data.

The nine states reporting the greatest percentage gains in recovered jobs are all led by Republican governors, according to the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. In terms of percentage increases, Utah’s 142 percent was the highest, adding 200,000 jobs as of December 2021, surpassing the 140,000 coronavirus-related jobs it lost. The rest are Idaho, Texas, Arizona, Montana, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Florida. North Carolina, led by a Democratic governor, rounds out the top 10.

By sheer numbers, Texas reported the most jobs recovered – 1,542,000 by December 2021 – compared to the 1,452,600 jobs lost after March 2020.

Texas Greg Abbott credits Texas’ job growth to pro-growth economic policies, a predictable regulatory environment, and a young, growing, and diverse workforce.

Of the state’s job growth continuing to outperform the nation’s, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said, “Month after month, the data continues to show that freedom first economic policies create jobs and keep our economy moving. Our new businesses and workforce growth show that Floridians have the opportunities they need to thrive. We will continue to lead the nation in economic growth because we value the individual freedoms of Floridians and protect the ability for our citizens to succeed.”

According to BLS data, 12 states set new unemployment rate lows (series began in 1976). They include Arkansas (3.1 percent), Georgia (2.6 percent), Idaho (2.4 percent), Indiana (2.7 percent), Kentucky (3.9 percent), Mississippi (4.5 percent), Montana (2.5 percent), Nebraska (1.7 percent), Oklahoma (2.3 percent), Utah (1.9 percent), West Virginia (3.7 percent), and Wisconsin (2.8 percent).

California and Nevada, both led by Democratic governors, had the highest unemployment rates of 6.5 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.

Overall, Democrat-led states reported an average unemployment rate of 4.9 percent, higher than the national average of 3.9 percent and the 3.4 percent average of 27 Republican-led states was.

The outliers are Alaska and Texas, with the highest unemployment rates of Republican-led states of 5.7 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

According to Wallet Hub Nebraska, Utah, and Oklahoma are the rank above Montana as state’s whose unemployment has bounced back the most, and it ranks New York, California, New Jersey, Nevada and Hawaii as states that have bounced back the least.

Billings Car Thefts Among Highest in Nation

9 February 2022
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The Billings metro area has one of the highest motor vehicle theft rates in the United States, reports Center Square. According to data from the FBI, among metro areas, Billings ranks ninth in the nation. There were 998 vehicle thefts in the metro area in 2020, or 543 for every 100,000 people – far higher than the motor vehicle theft rate nationwide of 246 per 100,000 people. Due in large part to the higher than average vehicle theft rate, the overall property crime rate in Billings also exceeds the comparable national rate. There were 3,472 property crimes reported for every 100,000 people in the metro area in 2020, compared to 1,958 per 100,000 nationwide. In general, motor vehicle theft is on the rise in the US. There were a total of 810,400 motor vehicle thefts nationwide in 2020, the most in over a decade.

Motor vehicle theft, one of the most serious offenses tracked by the FBI, is on the rise in the United States. There were a total of 810,400 motor vehicle thefts nationwide in 2020, the most in over a decade.

Motor vehicle theft can be either the theft or attempted theft of a vehicle, such as a car, truck, ATV, or motorcycle. Some experts attribute the rising rates of vehicle theft to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to vehicles sitting unattended and unused for longer than usual. Additionally, vehicle theft is often committed for monetary gain, and the pandemic sent unemployment soaring and left many Americans struggling financially.

While motorists nationwide now face a greater risk of vehicle theft than they have in many years, in some parts of the country, car owners are far more likely to be victims of car theft than in others.

The Billings metro area, located in Montana, has one of the highest motor vehicle theft rates in the United States. According to data from the FBI, there were 998 vehicle thefts in the metro area in 2020, or 543 for every 100,000 people – far higher than the motor vehicle theft rate nationwide of 246 per 100,000 people.

Motor vehicle theft – along with larceny and burglary – is one of three criminal offenses that comprise the property crime category. Due in large part to the higher than average vehicle theft rate, the overall property crime rate in the metro area also exceeds the comparable national rate. There were 3,472 property crimes reported for every 100,000 people in the metro area in 2020, compared to 1,958 per 100,000 nationwide.

All crime data used in this story is from the FBI’s 2020 Uniform Crime Report. Limited data was available in the 2020 UCR for areas in Alabama, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, though these states were not excluded from our analysis. Only metro areas for which the boundaries defined by the FBI match the boundaries defined by the U.S. Census Bureau were considered.

Americans Produced more in the Last Quarter than Expected

9 February 2022
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Newly released economic figures from the Commerce Department showed that the U.S. economy grew more than expected last quarter. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 6.9% in the last quarter of 2021, exceeding the experts’ predictions of 5.5 percent growth and far outpaced the previous quarter’s 2.3% increase.

“The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports, accelerations in private inventory investment and PCE, and smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in state and local government spending,” the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said. “Imports accelerated.”

Center Square reported that the increase in economic growth from October through December led to a healthy growth year in 2021, despite weaker growth earlier in the year.

“GDP growth dramatically outpaced forecasts made a year ago. Most forecasters expected the economy to grow 3 to 4 percent this year,” said Jason Furman, former advisor to President Barack Obama and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute. “Instead it has grown 5.5 percent. That is more than a percentage point faster than even the most optimistic forecast was expecting.” The federal agency said COVID-19 is still a significant factor affecting economic increase.“The increase in fourth quarter GDP reflected the continued economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the fourth quarter, COVID-19 cases resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country,” BEA said in its release of the numbers. “Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off.”

Brett Linneweber Appointed 13th District Judge

23 December 2021
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Governor Greg Gianforte has announced the appointment of Brett Linneweber to serve on the Thirteenth Judicial District Court in Yellowstone County. Linneweber fills the vacancy created by 13th Judicial District Judge Gregory Todd’s retirement.

Since 2014, Linneweber has served as Senior Deputy Yellowstone County Attorney, where the vast majority of his practice has been in criminal litigation.

“Brett Linneweber brings to the table years of experience as a county attorney where he’s managed some of the most urgent issues facing Yellowstone County,” Gov. Gianforte said.

Prior to serving in Yellowstone County, Linneweber practiced in Park County for 13 years, serving as Deputy Park County Attorney from 2001 to 2005 and Park County Attorney from 2005 to 2014.

Linneweber graduated from Montana State University with a B.A in Political Science in 1991, before earning his law degree at the University of Montana School of Law in 2000.

This fall, Governor Gianforte announced an advisory council of attorneys and community leaders in Yellowstone County to assist in reviewing qualified candidates to fill the district court vacancy in the Thirteenth Judicial District.

The governor concluded, “I’m grateful to each member of the advisory council for giving their time to review and recommend a highly-qualified nominee from within their community to serve the people of Yellowstone County.”

Linneweber will be sworn in to serve on the Montana Thirteenth Judicial District in January of 2022.

Get Rid of Trade Barriers, Licenses, Permits, Regulations

22 December 2021
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From Competitive Enterprise Institute

October’s inflation reading was the highest since the recession of 1991. November’s is the highest since the 1982 recession, at an annualized 6.8 percent. The reason inflation is usually highest during recessions is because governments attempt to restart growth through a combination of monetary and fiscal policy. It is troubling that today’s inflation is happening while the economy is growing and unemployment is low.

In fact, the misery index is now in double digits, which rarely happens outside of recessions. The misery index is the inflation rate plus the unemployment rate—economist Arthur Okun came up with it as an easy-to-use statistic for President Lyndon Johnson’s benefit, and it remained a key statistic throughout the stagflationary 1970s. It may be time to dust it off again.

While unemployment is a very low 4.2 percent, when combined with 6.8 percent inflation, the misery index currently stands at 11. For context, its all-time high was 21.9 in June 1980. It was below 5 for a good chunk of the 1950s, and was at 5.3 in April 2015.

Inflation happens when the money supply grows faster than the supply of goods and services, as I explained earlier. In today’s case, the COVID-19 pandemic shut down large swathes of the economy for an extended period. Even if the money supply had remained stable, the supply of goods and services temporarily went down. The effects are still being felt in today’s supply chain problems.

But economic fundamentals remained healthy. There was no financial crisis or popped housing bubble. People hunkered down for a while, and are in the process of coming back. This is why COVID-era growth has bounced back in close tandem with increased vaccination rates and decreased caseloads. When people feel safe to open back up, they do—and nothing is stopping them except for bad public policy.

Both Congress and President Biden responded to a different type of recession with the same tools. The result is high inflation during a period of growth. The solution is to spend less and get money supply growth back in sync with growth in goods and services. Instead, Congress continues to spend at a record rate, with more likely on the way. The Fed has indicated that it will taper back monetary growth, but not until next year.

Policy makers are unlikely to do the right thing on the money side. But they can help the goods and services side by removing trade barriers, getting rid of unneeded occupational licenses, speeding up years-long permit processes, repealing the shipping cost-raising Jones Act, liberalizing trucking regulations, and other deregulatory measures. These would spark growth while helping to tame inflation—and without adding to the deficit.

Western Priorities Center Says Moving BLM Back to DC Corrects Error

21 December 2021
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The Bureau of Land Management has announced the correction of what it sees as having been an error of President Trump’s administration, according to the Center for Western Priorities. The agency is returning  to its Washington, DC headquarters.

BLM Director Tracy Stone-Manning will be based in Washington, along with the agency’s deputy directors and other leadership. Additionally, the agency will fill approximately 30 vacant positions in Washington, while establishing a Western headquarters in Grand Junction, Colorado.

The Center for Western Priorities’ Executive Director Jennifer Rokala stated: “Today’s announcement marks the end of an error. I’m encouraged to see the Bureau of Land Management moving so quickly to reverse the damage caused by the Trump administration and anti-public lands extremist William Perry Pendley. Our nation’s public lands need strong leadership at the table in Washington, so there’s not a minute to waste rebuilding the Bureau of Land Management at Interior headquarters. 

“America’s public lands are at the center of the fight to slow climate change and the biodiversity crisis. Protecting our lands for future generations will take a concerted and coordinated effort across the entire government, which is why the Bureau of Land Management’s leadership must be located in our nation’s capital.”

SBA Sees Loan Volume Double

19 November 2021
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SBA Montana sees Loan Volume double this year reaching 323 Businesses with over $186 Million

The Montana District of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) announced “non-COVID” loan data for fiscal year ended September 30, 2021, showing 323 Montana small businesses received over $186 million.  Of these loans, 277 for $158,922,700 were made through SBA’s 7(a) Guaranty Loan Program which provides short- or long-term financing for small business start-up or expansion needs.  46 loans totaling $27,669,000 were made through SBA’s 504 Certified Development Company program, providing long term fixed rates financing for land, buildings, and equipment. 

Yellowstone Bank was the leading SBA lender in Montana for FY21, with 52 loans totaling nearly $28.5 million followed closely by Glacier Bank with 46 loans.  Stockman Bank, Bank of Bridger, Capital Matrix, Dakota Business Lending, Wells Fargo, Three Rivers Bank, Big Sky Economic Development and Valley Bank of Ronan round out the top 10.

Restaurants (full service/limited service), Landscaping Services, and General Automotive Repair were among the most frequently financed businesses during Fiscal Year 2021; with the largest dollar volume of SBA loans financing going to restaurants (food/beverage services).  48 loans totaling $18,516,300 were made to women-owned businesses, 13 loans totaling $2,581,300 were made to veterans, and 22 loans totaling $6,271,400 were made to minority business owners.  101 loans for over $41 million were made to new businesses.

“Montana is not only one of the greatest places in the country to live, but also to start and run a small business.”  said Brent Donnelly, the SBA District Director for Montana. “With the grit and resiliency Montana business showed in pandemic 2020, coupled with the dedication of our Montana lenders, a doubling of SBA loan volume is no surprise.”

Top 7(a) Lenders by # Loans

Lender                 $          # Approved

Yellowstone Bank    $28,458,500          52

Glacier Bank           $14,677,700           46

Stockman Bank        $11,558,900          22

Bank Of Bridger,      $5,716,100           19

Wells Fargo Bank,    $4,277,300           14

Three Rivers Bank    $4,119,500           13

Valley Bank Ronan   $3,554300            12

First Interstate Bank  $2,186,600           11

U.S. Bank,                $ 731,700              8

Opportunity Bank     $1,882,000             6

Rocky Mountain Bank $11,183,100        6

Montana Community

   Development Corp. $ 678,000             5

Bank Of The Rockies $1,907,400           3

Berkshire Bank          $4,228,000           3

Freedom Bank           $ 913,500             3

First Home Bank   $1,195,000  3

The Bancorp Bank $706,000    3

Mountain America FCU $729,400       3

Manhattan Bank    $558,200    3

Newtek Small Business

   Finance, Inc. $4,364,000  3

Ascent Bank $1,275,200  3

First State Bank ,Forsyth     $547,400    2

Alaska Growth

    Capital Bidco, Inc. $3,100,000  2

Dogwood State Bank      $4,642,100  2

Fund-Ex Solutions Group $1,694,600  2

Farmers State Bank      $460,100    2

Altana FCU $900,000    2

First Community Bank    $2,230,000  2

Umpqua Bank $2,804,300  2

Live Oak Banking Co.    $8,025,000  2

The First National Bank

   Of Mcgregor D/B/A T $2,079,200  1

United Midwest

   Savings Bank, $1,710,000  1

First Federal Bank & Trust    $150,000    1

Pacific Western Bank    $617,000    1

United Community Bank $1,350,000          1

Readycap Lending, LLC   $1,165,000  1

The First State

   Bank, Shelby   $789,100    1

Keybank     $943,500    1

Colony Bank $5,000,000  1

Royal Business Bank     $1,770,000  1

First Bank Of The Lake  $1,450,000  1

Ameris Bank $449,000    1

First Montana Bank, Inc.      $2,058,000  1

Celtic Bank Corporation $3,606,000  1

Velocitysba, LLC  $512,000    1

Gulf Coast Bank And

   Trust Company  $455,000    1

1St Financial Bank USA  $5,000,000  1

Harvest Small Business

   Finance, LLC   $515,000    1

Grand Total $158,922,700      277

 Top 504 CDC’s by # of Loans

           $ Approved            #

Capital Matrix, Inc.    $5,343,000  16

Dakota Business

    Lending $14,494,000 15

Big Sky Economic

   Development Corp.    $6,683,000  12

High Plains

   Financial, Inc.      $1,149,000  3

Grand Total $27,669,000 46

Loan Approvals By County

                                    $ Approved         #

Yellowstone       $50,289,300 96

Gallatin    $42,574,900 50

Flathead    $27,811,400 41

Missoula    $12,920,800 35

Cascade     $8,198,400  13

Lewis And Clark   $7,725,600  13

Lake  $3,518,600  12

Carbon      $3,227,500  7

Park  $4,384,600  7

Valley       $ 490,200           4

Lincoln     $1,610,000         4

Custer       $1,139,800         4

Richland     $ 520,000         3

Deer Lodge $  679,500        3

Sanders      $ 765,400         3

Fergus         $ 327,000        3

Ravalli       $2,835,900       3

Teton       $1,597,900    2

Silver Bow $2,594,000       2

Phillips      $2,675,000        2

Jefferson    $1,579,000        2

Daniels      $1,071,000        2

Granite      $ 515,000           1

Blaine        $  10,000           1

Chouteau    $ 350,000          1

Powder River$237,000        1

Sheridan       $175,000         1

Big Horn    $2,400,000        1

Stillwater $416,200    1

Glacier     $789,100    1

Dawson      $350,000    1

Rosebud     $321,600    1

Madison     $1,709,000  1

Meagher     $783,000    1

Grand Total $186,591,700      323

Manufacturing Forges Ahead, Despite Head Winds

19 November 2021
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Despite incredible headwinds the manufacturing industry in the US continues to produce and to set records.

Manufacturing employment jumped by 60,000 in October, and total employment in the sector has risen 298,000 year to date in 2021, putting it on track for the best annual job growth since 1997.

The average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers in manufacturing rose to $24.22 in October, with a 5.4% increase over the past year, the fastest wage growth since August 1982.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 531,000 in October, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.6% 

Demand cooled somewhat but remained solid. Supply chain disruptions, logistics challenges, workforce shortages and soaring costs have dampened demand.

New orders for manufactured goods rose 0.2% to a record $515.9 billion in September, albeit at a slower pace. Excluding transportation equipment, manufacturing orders increased 0.7% in September. Overall, the manufacturing sector continues to expand strongly—despite significant challenges—with new orders soaring 10.2% year to date.

Private manufacturing construction spending declined 1.6% to $72.42 billion in September, falling to a five-month low. While construction activity in the manufacturing sector has risen 4.7% year-over-year, spending remains 4.9% below the $76.16 billion in activity recorded in February 2020.

The U.S. trade deficit rose from $72.81 billion in August to a record $80.93 billion in September. Goods exports fell sharply for the month, with goods imports rising. The volatility in the September data likely stemmed from ongoing supply chain difficulties, including the chip shortage. Growth in goods imports has outpaced the increase in goods exports year to date.

More positively, U.S.-manufactured goods exports totaled $831.87 billion through the first nine months of 2021, soaring 18.80% from $700.24 billion year to date in 2020.

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee has decided to start tapering its asset purchases later this month. The Federal Reserve has been purchasing as much as $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities each month since the beginning of the pandemic. It will start scaling that back by $15 billion in November, another $15 billion in December, and so on, likely ending these purchases entirely by mid-2022.

The FOMC kept the federal funds range of zero to 25 basis points, also as predicted. It is not likely to shift its interest rate policy until mid-2022, contingent on incoming economic data.

Commissioners to Move Ahead to Reduce Position of County Auditor

19 November 2021
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County Commissioners seemed to be in general agreement to move forward with the County Auditor’s suggestion to consolidate or reduce the hours of his office.

About a month ago, County Auditor Scott Turner brought forward the idea of consolidating or reducing to part-time the office of County Auditor. As the year ends and since next year would be a re-election year for the position, the commissioners want to initiate the process of changing the position before candidates can begin filing for election to county offices.

Duties performed by the county auditor could be accomplished on a part time basis and reducing the office from a full-time elected position could save the county as much as $100,000, said Turner, who has served in the office since 2017.

Prior to that Turner was Yellowstone County’s Director of Finance for 26 year.

Turner suggests that a 1.5 FTE would be adequate to perform the duties of the office and provide back-up. There are only a couple of processes that would require some oversight of an elected official, he said, and suggested that could be either the County Attorney or the Clerk & Recorder.

Only 13 counties have a large enough population to be required constitutionally  to have an auditor in Montana, according to Turner. Of those, seven have consolidated the position. Turner said that a survey of other counties such as Cascade, Flathead and Lewis & Clark who have consolidated the position indicates that they have been satisfied with the decision.

The commissioners asked Chief In-House Counsel for Yellowstone County Jeana Lervick to investigate the legal process and provide the necessary documents to proceed with the process.

Balance Sheets Shift for Banks with Excess Deposits and Fewer Loans

19 November 2021
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Banks continue to face the challenge of managing excess deposits while their customers are seeking fewer loans, reports the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

Commercial banks in the Ninth District of the Federal Reserve Bank, have experienced unprecedented deposit growth and reduced demand for loans since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.1 These two forces caused considerable changes in the composition of assets on bank balance sheets, driven by cautious spending by depositors as well as pandemic-related relief efforts. Montana is part of the Ninth District.

The growth in deposits at Ninth District commercial banks has significantly outpaced growth in loans since the beginning of 2020. Pandemic relief efforts starting in the second quarter of 2020 contributed to the excess deposits, while pandemic-mitigating efforts and cautious consumer behavior curbed economic activity and lowered loan demand.

Excluding PPP loans, median year-over-year loan volume throughout the pandemic was largely unchanged. The PPP loan program allowed commercial banks to originate forgivable loans for businesses during the pandemic. Banks deposited the PPP disbursements directly into customer accounts. This contributed to the large increases in excess deposits in the second quarter of 2020 and again in the first quarter of 2021, when Congress made additional PPP loan funds available.

Regardless of growth in PPP loans, deposit growth since the fourth quarter of 2019 is significant across most banks. The median deposit growth rate continues to rise across different PPP proportions even as PPP loan volume has declined significantly. Besides PPP loans, other pandemic-related relief efforts and more cautious spending habits contributed to deposit growth.

The rate of deposit growth is more pronounced at banks with a higher percentage of PPP loans to total loans. Banks with a ratio of PPP loans to total loans that is greater than 10 percent report a median growth rate of 37 percent in total deposits since the fourth quarter of 2019, compared with 23 percent growth at banks with a ratio of PPP loans to total loans of 5 percent or less.

The rate of deposit growth moderated in the second quarter of 2021 for all PPP loan proportions because the program ended in the second quarter and the volume of PPP loans declined from approximately $30 billion to $19 billion quarter over quarter in the Ninth District (approximately $400 billion to $300 billion nationwide).4

The combination of relief efforts, shifts in spending by consumers and businesses, and the search for profitability in a low-interest-rate environment has led to significant changes in bank balance sheets in the district.

As expected, given deposit growth from bank customers, the amount of cash held by banks has grown significantly; recently, however, the trend has shifted to an increase in purchases of investment securities and a decrease in other borrowings. Banks have fewer options for deploying cash, given the limited demand for loans by their customers, so they have opted to increase securities and rely less on borrowings.

To fund loans during the pandemic, Ninth District commercial banks used more liquid sources—such as excess cash—while reducing borrowings. Shifting cash into securities improved revenue, and lowered borrowings reduced expenses. While the shift in assets and liabilities has improved liquidity risk at these banks, the more liquid assets are less profitable than loans.