How much impact do tax policies have?

The Tax Foundation has ranked Montana as Number Two among states to gain population due to Interstate Migration. As a percentage of population Montana gained 1.14 percent in population from 2019-2020 in population based upon an analysis of address changes from the IRS.  Idaho was Number 1 with 2. 05 percent. Arizona was Number 3 with 1.10 percent.

In total 28 states gained in population including Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and South Carolina—while 22 states and the District of Columbia experienced a net loss—led by New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New Jersey. Washington DC was actually the “state” to have had the greatest out migration with a loss of -2.17 percent, followed by New York with -1. 28 percent. North Dakota was 47th with a loss of – 0.72 percent in population, followed by California with a loss of -0.67 percent.

Reports the Tax Foundation: “For many years, policymakers, journalists, and taxpayers have debated the role state tax policy plays in individuals’ and businesses’ location decisions. Annual data about who is moving—and where—provide clues about the factors contributing to these moves.”

The Tax Foundation explained that these data, capture many of the interstate moves made early in the pandemic—between mid-March and mid-July 2020—but do not necessarily capture the bulk of pandemic-related moves, many of which occurred later in 2020 and even into 2021. It is more accurate however, than the more timely reports provided by moving companies. The IRS data are by default more comprehensive and provide important insights into the movement of adjusted gross income (AGI) among states.

When all individuals associated with each tax return are accounted for, including spouses and dependents, only one state, Wisconsin, saw a loss in tax returns attributable to interstate migration but a gain in individuals associated with the returns of those who moved in.

“Many factors influence an individual’s or family’s decision to move from one state to another….Cost-of-living considerations, including tax differentials, may not be the primary reason for an interstate move, but they are often one of several factors people consider when deciding whether—and where—to move.”

With this in mind, one observation from the 2019-2020 IRS migration data is that a strong positive relationship exists between state tax competitiveness and inbound migration. Overall, states with lower taxes and sound tax structures experienced stronger inbound migration than states with higher taxes and more burdensome structures.

Of the 10 states that experienced the largest gains in income taxpayers, five do not levy individual income taxes on wage or salary income at all, and two others had top marginal individual income tax rates that were below the national median at the time. Recently, those states have grown even more competitive. Nine of the top 10 states either forgo individual income taxes on wage and salary income, have a flat income tax, or are moving to a flat income tax.

Additionally, among the 28 states that experienced net inbound migration of income tax filers, only nine had a top marginal individual income tax rate above the national median. Meanwhile, among the 22 states (and the District of Columbia) that experienced net outbound migration of income tax filers, 15 states and D.C. had top marginal rates above the median. In the aggregate, states with a top marginal rate at or below the 2019 median of 5.4 percent gained 225,000 net new residents from the states with rates above the median.

A robust positive relationship also exists between states with below-average state and local tax collections per capita and those experiencing strong inbound migration. Of the 28 states that saw a net gain in income tax filers due to interstate migration, 22 had below-average state and local tax collections per capita in fiscal year 2020, while half of the states that experienced net outbound migration had above-average collections per capita.

Furthermore, a strong positive relationship exists between states with well-structured tax codes and those that experience net inbound migration. Among the 25 best ranking states on the 2020 State Business Tax Climate Index, which had a snapshot date of July 1, 2019, 20 states experienced net inbound migration between 2019 and 2020. Meanwhile, among the 25 worst ranking states on the Index, 17 experienced a net loss of taxpayers to interstate migration.

The Tax Foundation advises, “The reason policymakers should care about their state’s interstate migration patterns is the effect of interstate migration on tax revenue, economic output, and economic growth over time. Between 2019 and 2020, most states that experienced a net loss in income tax filers attributable to interstate migration also experienced a net loss in income associated with interstate migration, while most states that gained taxpayers also experienced corresponding gains in AGI.

Hawaii was the only state to lose residents on net yet experience a net gain in AGI, with new residents bringing in an average of $75,000 in AGI per return while departing residents had an average of $64,000 per return. Meanwhile, only three states—Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri—saw a net gain in income tax filers but a net loss in AGI, with new residents earning less on average than the people who moved out.

Some of this is due to cost-of-living adjustments that tend to occur when individuals leave employment in one state for employment in another. For example, even if their job duties are substantially similar, a registered nurse employed in a high-cost-of-living state is likely to have a higher salary than one employed in a lower-cost-of-living state due to cost-of-living considerations that affect market rate earnings in different parts of the country.

There is evidence, however, that in states like Hawaii, the loss of relatively lower-income residents is somewhat attributable to high taxes and high costs of living causing lower- and middle-income residents to seek more affordable destinations elsewhere. Notably, four of the top five states Hawaii residents moved to—Washington, Texas, Nevada, and Florida—forgo individual income taxes on wage income.

Likewise, some of the gain of relatively lower-income residents in Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri is likely due to the relatively low cost of living in those states compared to other locations. Crucially for economic growth, however, a low tax environment also encourages investment and entrepreneurial decision-making and attracts highly mobile higher earners as well.

Following extensive bargaining, Governor Greg Gianforte and public employee unions have reached an agreement for the state pay plan. Covering the 2024-2025 biennium, the agreement includes wage increases, health benefit cost freezes, one-time payments, and other far-reaching contractual changes.

The agreement includes a $1.50 per hour or 4% raise—whichever is greater—on July 1 each year of the upcoming biennium. Single members’ out-of-pocket health benefit contributions, copay amounts, deductibles, and co-insurance costs will not increase through 2025. Additionally, one-time payments prorated to a 40-hour work week and worth up to $1,040 will be provided to every employee. The agreement also provides increased meal per diems and the addition of an annual flexible holiday which will replace every other year’s Election Day holiday.

Unions representing public employees bargain a state pay plan with the governor prior to every legislative session. The bargained pay plan must then be approved by the legislature.

Governor Greg Gianforte recently shared elements of his health care agenda for the 2023 legislative session and the year ahead, emphasizing the need to increase access to affordable, high-quality health care.

“Creating greater, and better, access to health care and lowering Montanans’ costs for care are core pillars of our health care agenda for 2023,” Gov. Gianforte said. “I look forward to working with legislators, patients, doctors, providers, and hospital administrators to develop more meaningful, innovative solutions that improve Montanans’ health and their access to care.”

At the Montana College of Osteopathic Medicine, the governor highlighted the importance of recruiting and retaining medical professionals to expand access to care.

“With an increasingly aging population as well as our growing population, demand for health care providers continues to rise in Montana, and our supply can’t keep up. This has been a growing issue that we’ve faced for many years. We’re coming to the table with more solutions in 2023,” the governor said, before outlining his plan to make it easier for qualified health care providers to practice medicine in Montana by reducing unnecessary barriers they face.

“Imagine if you’re a doctor who’s registered to practice medicine in another state and are in good standing there. You move to Montana. You shouldn’t have to jump through burdensome hoops to start treating patients in your community here,” the governor continued. “We must reform our licensure regime to reduce those barriers.”

Addressing the substance use crisis and shortage of mental health providers, Gov. Gianforte highlighted programs his administration has implemented, including the HEART Fund and the Angel Initiative, to increase access to treatment and recovery for those struggling with addiction.

Building on those successes, the governor addressed a plan to improve access to mental health resources, saying, “Montana should enter into a behavioral health compact to reduce barriers that qualified providers face. By taking that step, Montanans will have better access to mental health care.”

He also credited Rocky Vista’s Montana College of Osteopathic Medicine, the first medical school in Montana, as a key part of the solution in meeting the demand for medical professionals.

Acknowledging the federal government has a larger role in lowering health care costs, the governor emphasized the state must do what it can to lower costs, including increasing medical billing transparency.

“What if, before a procedure, you knew what you would pay? What if your provider and your insurer provided you with a cost estimate? We must ensure Montanans have access to important pricing information prior to receiving services,” Gov. Gianforte said. “With greater transparency on costs in advance, Montanans can better make health care decisions that work for them and their families.”

The governor began his remarks by acknowledging Montana’s health care workers and the important work they do.

Last Sunday, a patient entered the Billings Clinic emergency room and attempted suicide before law enforcement intervened.

“What happened Sunday was troubling and traumatic. It’s a reminder that our health care workers are on the frontlines, every day, serving our communities. They see patients, as well as their friends and family, at their most vulnerable, and it takes a toll on them,” the governor said.

“No nurse or doctor or provider should fear for their well-being simply by showing up for work and doing their best to care for patients,”

By David Beasley, The Center Square

Gov. Greg Gianforte’s plan to provide more relief from the state’s business equipment tax could attract more businesses to Montana, according to one small business advocacy group.

The governor said earlier this month that he wants more reforms to the business equipment tax when the legislature convenes next year. In 2021, lawmakers raised the tax exemption from $100,000 to $300,000, which provided 3,400 businesses with tax relief, according to the governor’s office.

“Taxing critical business equipment makes it harder to grow a small business and is a wet blanket on job creation,” Gianforte said in a statement. 

“In 2023, we want to build on that success, further reforming the business equipment tax so small business owners can grow their operations and create more good-paying Montana jobs,” he added.

The price of equipment needed to operate businesses has increased with inflation, according to Ronda Wiggers, Montana state director for the National Federal of Independent Business.

“If you are a store owner who buys cabinets, or a farmer who buys a combine, or you buy freezers and refrigerators for your restaurant, in the state of Montana we tax those,” she told The Center Square. “We put a taxable value on that, and we tax them. Although the taxable value depreciates over time, you don’t just pay it once. You pay it every year. It’s an ongoing tax.”

When the state eliminated the first $100,000 of value from taxation a few years ago, “that took care of a lot of our small businesses,” she said. “Most of the stores, for example, probably don’t have over $100,000 worth of display cases.”

Since local governments obtain revenue from the equipment tax, the state last year covered any losses they might incur from raising the exemption to $300,000, Wiggers said.

Gianforte has not yet detailed what his proposal will be for raising the exemption this year, although there has been some speculation he may support increasing it to $500,000, according to Wiggers. 

A higher exemption could attract more equipment-intensive businesses like in the manufacturing sector, Wiggers noted.

“When you are trying to attract those kinds of businesses to the state, they are looking at the bottom line,” she said. “Having an equipment tax in one state and not having it in another would very much affect something like manufacturing.”

After five years of planning, the preliminary plans for a multi-use recreation center for Billings have been released.

The proposed $98.7 million facility would be located adjacent to Amend Park at the corner of King Avenue East and South Billings Boulevard, on property that the city acquired through a tax increment finance district. The plans call for a 177,000 square-foot facility that would include an ice sheet for hockey and skating, a leisure and activity swimming pool, a 50-meter competition pool, four sports courts, open fitness and activity areas and an indoor running track.

A facility with that price tag will require multiple sources of funding according to city officials. Besides funds from the South Billings Boulevard Tax Increment District, it will require community contributions and a bond request from the voters.

Funding a project of that size would require cash from multiple sources, including tax increment finance dollars, philanthropic support and most notably a voter-approved bond.

A&E designed the facility after gathering broad community input.

Planning was based on “a statistically valid survey” done in 2019 and repeated this spring to determine the highest priorities of the community.

Projections estimate that the facility would cost $3.4 million to operate annually while bringing in $2.5 million in revenue, a cost recovery rate of about 74%. The $901,000 gap would be filled by the city and would cost the average Billings homeowner roughly $12 to $15 a year.

The Center Square

Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are joining forces to create a regional clean hybrid hub that will compete with other hubs for federal dollars.

The Biden administration announced last week that it was accepting applications for the $7 billion program for regional hubs funded through President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The money is part of a larger $8 billion hydrogen hub program, according to a news release from the Biden administration. 

The U.S Department of Energy will select six to ten hubs, according to a news release from Burgum. The four-state collaboration will be called the Heartland Hydrogen Hub. 

The Energy & Environmental Research Center at the University of North Dakota in Grand Forks is leading the effort, which also includes the state’s tribes, according to Burgum’s office. The National Center for Hydrogen Technology is housed at the research center.

According to the memorandum of understanding, other states could join the hub in the future. 

“By bringing together our expertise in agriculture and energy production, we can create a world-class hydrogen hub and do even more as states to feed and fuel the nation and the world,” Burgum said. “We are grateful to these states and their governors for their participation, collaboration and shared interest in American energy production, U.S. energy security, job creation, economic development and environmental stewardship.”

Other states are collaborating on regional hydrogen hubs. Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Utah formed a regional hub in February. Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma announced a regional hub in March. 

The hydrogen hubs are part of the Biden administration’s plan for a net-zero carbon economy by 2050, according to the Department of Energy.