The Center Square

As economic figures cast doubt on a post-COVID economic boom, the latest polling data show Americans lack confidence in the economy under President Joe Biden.

New polling data released by Gallup  shows Americans are not confident in the economy and are largely unhappy with the nation’s current trajectory.

The poll found only 36% of Americans are “satisfied with the way things are going.” Specifically on the economy, Americans also are pessimistic.

“Twenty-seven percent of Americans now rate current economic conditions as excellent or good, while 30% rate them as poor,” Gallup reports. “Meanwhile, 43% say the economy is getting better, and 53% say it is getting worse.”

Gallup’s economic index uses a scale of -100 to +100 to measure Americans’ sentiments around the economy and other issues. The number released Monday found the index at -7, down from +2 in the previous month and well below the +43 that was measured in February 2020, when President Donald Trump was still in office and just before the pandemic began.

The poll comes after recently released economic data disappointed economists. The Bureau of Labor said earlier this month that unemployment spiked to 6.1% in April. The economy added only 266,000 new jobs that month, far short of the one million new jobs predicted by experts. Also, unemployment filings rose sharply during COVID and remain high, despite widespread vaccinations.

The poll also found that Americans increasingly see COVID as less of an issue and the struggling economy as the bigger priority. The poll found 21% of Americans cited an economic issue as the most important problem in the nation, the highest since April of 2017.

“Even during the worst phases of the coronavirus pandemic, Americans’ attention was focused more on the coronavirus and other issues as the most important problem, including times when economic confidence was much lower than today,” Gallup reports. “Before the current survey, the highest percentage mentioning economic matters as the most important problem since the pandemic began was 19% in June.”

A Yahoo News/ YouGov  poll from last week showed many Americans blame the economic woes on ongoing federal unemployment benefits. When asked, a plurality of 44% of Americans blamed the supplement federal unemployment benefits for increased unemployment, saying the benefits “are making it too easy for unemployed Americans to not work.” Meanwhile, 41% of Americans said unemployment had remained high because “the pandemic is making it hard for unemployed Americans to find work.”

Republicans also have pointed to growing inflation as an ominous economic indicator after BLS reported a spike in consumer prices last month.

“In this Biden economy almost everything we need in order to survive is getting more expensive by the month,” Republican National Convention Spokesperson Paris Dennard said.

Both parties will likely use the upcoming jobs and unemployment data to support their attacks on or defense of the economy.

“The May jobs report to be released in early June could go a long way to convince Americans whether the disappointing April report was a temporary aberration in the economic recovery or the start of a more concerning negative trend,” Gallup said.

The Gallup poll was conducted May 3-18 with a random sample of 1,016 adults in all 50 states. There is 4% margin of error.

Montana’s unemployment rate declined from 3.8% in March to 3.7% in April. The unemployment rate for the U.S. was 6.1% for the month.

“Montana’s economic recovery depends on getting Montanans back to work into good-paying jobs, allowing our businesses to fill open jobs and meet their growing customer demand,” Gov. Gianforte said. “By ending the pandemic-related federal unemployment bonus that discourages work and by launching a return-to-work bonus, more Montanans will reenter the workforce, and Montana’s economy will continue to rebound.”

Montana’s unemployment rate for April matches the pre-pandemic rate of 3.7% in February 2020. There are, however, 9,428 fewer Montanans in the labor force than there were in February 2020.

Montana’s total employment, which includes payroll, agricultural, and self-employed workers, grew by 1,799 in April. Employment gains were fueled by workers returning to the labor force, which added 1,437 workers in April as vaccines were made available to more Montanans. After March’s strong growth in payroll employment, Montana saw a small decline of 300 payroll jobs in April.

“The specter of inflation is concerning. It’s time for the federal government to turn off the spigot of spending trillions of dollars that drive up our national debt, a shameful burden our kids and grandkids will inherit,” Gov. Gianforte said. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.8% over the month in April for total a 12-month increase of 4.2%, the largest 12-month increase since September 2008. Prices of used cars and trucks rose 10% in April and accounted for a third of the increase. Prices mostly increased across the board. The index for all items less food and energy, referred to as core inflation, increased 0.9% in April.

The Montana Farm Bureau is applauding Governor Gianforte for signing HB 554 which states that before the federal government can establish a national heritage area, the Montana Legislature must approve it. This bill gives farmers and ranchers a layer of assurance that there will be local input on designations that might impact their ability to use certain practices.

When Chouteau County Farm Bureau learned about the push for the Big Sky Country National Heritage Area (BSCNHA) covering 2 million acres in Cascade and part of Chouteau counties, they raised the alarm.  They introduced policy at the 2020 Montana Farm Bureau Delegates Session for local control on property rights issues, then Rep. Josh Kassmier (R) HD 27, introduced HB 554, and on Friday, May 14, Montana Governor Greg Gianforte signed the bill into law.

Chouteau County President Jess Bandel, who testified on the bill, said, “We want to thank Representative Kassmier and the other legislators who supported HB 554, and Governor Gianforte for signing it. Passage of this bill returns decisions on private property rights to the people and the state, as opposed to giving the power to the federal government. That’s how our country was founded; power with the people. With state control, the people’s choice can be heard. This bill should at least put pressure on federal agencies making these decisions to contact the state and have a conversation about creating heritage areas.”

Bandel cautioned that although HB 554 will help protect property rights by having more local approval, it’s still essential to oppose the privately-managed BSCNHA by contacting the National Park Service as well as the Montana Congressional delegation.

“The proposed BSCNHA would infringe on private property rights, have a self-appointed board and misuse taxpayer funds,” said Bandel.

Dig it Days has some really big news for this year’s event, after having to cancel last year because of COVID restrictions.

The second annual Dig it Days will be a two-day special event at  Montana Fair, on Thursday and Friday, August 19 and 20 – and it will feature a monster, monster truck sponsored by Westmoreland Coal Company.

The first Dig it Days was held in 2019 in Lockwood.

Of course there will be lots and lots of other trucks and construction equipment, and emergency service vehicles, for kids to check out, inspect and “test drive.” There will also be the very popular Sand Mountain and other fun displays. Kids (big ones as well as younger ones) will also be able to operate a back hoe, for real!

Yellowstone Dig It Days is a fun, educational, and wholesome family entertainment event, the production of Yellowstone Family, a tax-exempt non-profit organization. It is made possible by a host of sponsors who not only help fund it but also provide the equipment, operators, and additional displays.

More so than ever before, Dig It Days will focus on education and educational opportunities as the sponsors emphasize the potential for careers in the constructing and contractor industry. Part of the funds raised will finance scholarships for students interested in pursuing such careers, as well as to support other youth organizations. So besides the return of some of the same local companies that were involved before, The Montana Contractors Association, Montana Equipment Dealers Association and Build Montana campaign are eager to participate in Dig It Days, as a means of introducing young people to their industry.

Entry to Dig it Days is included in the Montana Fair entry, and many free tickets will be available through sponsors so stay tuned for details. Free t-shirts will be distributed to kids until they are gone.

Commercial

Ziegler, Jack R & Michelle L/North Coast Electric Company, 1760 Monad Rd, Com Remodel,  $90,000

Executive Property Services/Trailhead Home Improvement, LLC, 1350 Avenue C, Com Remodel, $70,000

Deaconess Medical Center Of Billings/Bauer Construction, 2800 10th Ave N, Com Remodel, $509,643

Simon & Sherri Harper Living Trust, 1632 Grand Ave, Com Remodel, $47,082 

CHP Billings Mt Owner LLC/Master Protection Corporation, 4001 Bell Ave, Com Remodel, $5,611

Dennis & Jessie Benson/Moon Construction, 1414 4th Ave N, Com Remodel, $50,000

Kialy Iverson/Old School Contracting Inc, 5411 24th St W, Com Remodel, $4,000

Yellowstone County/Sprague Construction Roofing Division, 3319 King Ave E, Com Fence/Roof/Siding, $44,800

Debtor Co Trust/Perfect 10 Roofing, 3407 1st Ave N, Com Fence/Roof/Siding, $29,000

City Of Billings, Terry Park/T.W. Clark Construction Llc, 6th St W, Com Fence/Roof/Siding, $114,000 Western Sky Billings LLC/Beartooth Holding & Construction, 4610 Crescent St, Com New Office/Bank, $249,650

Josh Rollinger/Jones Construction, Inc, 3345 Conrad Rd, Com New Warehouse/Storage, $669,396

McDonald’s Real Estate Company, 1046 Grand Ave, Com Remodel, $19,260

Swenson, Randall D (1/2 Int), 1547 41st St W, Com Remodel, $75,000

N Schaff, Allen K Trustee, 2115 2nd Ave, Com Remodel, $175,000

Deaconess Medical Center Of Billings/Bauer Construction, 2800 10th Ave N, Com Remodel, $10,000

East Billings Investors/Blake Construction, 926 Main St, Com Remodel – Change In Use, $2,000

Jen & Jason Marble/Titan Excavation & Services, 2517 Montana Ave, Com Remodel – Change Of Use, $9,500

Residential

Frideres, Chris, 4433 Frances Ave, Res New Accessory Structure, $45,000

Ryan Mershon/Sundance Tile & Carpentry, 2019 9th Ave N, Res New Accessory Structure, $20,000

HG Design/HG Designs, 1912 W Thunder Mountain Rd, Res New Single Family, $400,000

J&S Development Co/HG Designs, 5211 Grass Mountain Rd, Res New Single Family, $400,000

Ridgewood Development LLP/Kings Mountain Builders Inc, 3395 Castle Pines Dr, Res New Single Family, $300,000

Jake Pierce, 645 Claremont Rd, Res New Single Family, $248,556

Big Sky Endeavors LLC/Emmons Building & Design Llc, 510 Omalley Dr, Res New Single Family, $332,672

L & L Construction, LLC/Lorenz Construction, 3376 Tahoe Dr, Res New Single Family, $256,894

McCall Development Inc, 1702 Annas Garden Ln, Res New Accessory Structure, $156,776

Wagenhals Enterprises Inc, 5501 First Light Cir,  Res New Single Family, $335,000

Upfront Development/ Aaron Higginbotham, 2224 Entrada Rd, Res New Single Family, $235,199

Emineth Custom Homes/Emineth Custom Homes, 3903 Pine Cove Rd, Res New Single Family, $410,000

Infinity Home/Infinity Home Llc, 1016 Beringer Way, Res New Single Family, $268,046

Infinity Home/Infinity Home Llc, 1023 Matador Ave, Res New Single Family, $201,672

High Sierra Ii Inc/Infinity Home Llc, 1019 Matador Ave, Res New Single Family, $202,845

High Sierra Ii Inc/Infinity Home Llc, 2124 Entrada Rd, Res New Single Family, $386,992

Steve Gountanis Homes Inc/Steve Gountanis Homes Inc, 5425 Burlington Ave, Res New Single Family, $320,669

McCall Development Inc/McCall Development, 1702 Annas Garden Ln, Res New Two Family, $257,568

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Department of Labor (DOL) have published a joint temporary final rule  making available an additional 22,000 H-2B temporary nonagricultural guest worker visas for fiscal year (FY) 2021 to employers who are likely to suffer irreparable harm without these additional workers. Of the supplemental visas, 6,000 are reserved for nationals of the Northern Triangle countries of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala.

DHS first announced the planned supplemental increase of 22,000 visas for the H-2B Temporary Non-Agricultural Worker program on April 20, 2021. The supplemental H-2B visa allocation consists of 16,000 visas available only to returning H-2B workers from one of the last three fiscal years (FY 2018, 2019, or 2020), and 6,000 visas for Northern Triangle nationals, which are exempt from the returning worker requirement.

“Today’s joint rule helps American businesses and addresses the need for robust worker protections,” said Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro N. Mayorkas. “For the first time, we are setting aside supplemental visas for noncitizens from Northern Triangle countries, in furtherance of President Biden’s and Vice President Harris’ direction to expand legal pathways for protection and opportunity for individuals from those countries.”  

“The temporary final rule is designed to prevent permanent and severe financial loss to U.S. employers by supplementing the congressionally mandated H-2B visa cap, takes into account feedback from American businesses, employer organizations, and labor representatives, and is one piece of the administration’s broader comprehensive framework for managing migration throughout North and Central America,” said USCIS Acting Director Tracy L. Renaud. “This rule incorporates several key provisions to ensure adequate safeguards for U.S. workers and H-2B workers. The rule requires that employers take additional steps to recruit U.S. workers, and provides for “portability,” which allows H-2B workers already in the United States to begin employment with a new H-2B employer or agent once USCIS receives a timely filed, non-frivolous H-2B petition, but before the petition is approved. Portability enables H-2B workers to change employers more quickly if they encounter unsafe or abusive working conditions. DHS and DOL will also conduct a significant number of post-adjudication reviews to ensure compliance with the program’s requirements.”

Starting May 25, eligible employers who have already completed a test of the U.S. labor market to verify that there are no U.S. workers who are willing, qualified, and able to perform the seasonal nonagricultural work can file Form I-129, Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker, to seek additional H-2B workers. They must submit an attestation with their petition to demonstrate their business is likely to suffer irreparable harm without a supplemental workforce. Additional details on eligibility and filing requirements are available in the temporary final rule and the Temporary Increase in H-2B Nonimmigrant Visas for FY 2021 webpage.

By Lowell Cooke, Coldwell Banker The Brokers

In a survey of closed home sales in the Billings Metro area, 502 single family homes closed from January 1 to April 30th.  Of the 502 sales (including mobile, manufactured and modular homes) 72% sold for full price or greater.  72%!!  Many of the homes selling for over full price sold anywhere from $500 to $30,000+ over asking price.

Cash Vs Financing

Having been on the losing end of several multiple offers, representing the buyer, and with over asking price offers, some of those loses were to cash offers.  I thought I would do a little research into how many of these closings were cash sales.  In this “feeding frenzy” environment, where the true laws of supply and demand are in play, where too many buyers chase too few homes for sale, multiple offers for over full price seem to be the norm.  Even with an offer many thousands of dollars over full price, an offer which involves bank financing is more likely to lose to a cash offer, even if it is more than the offer which is cash. The reasons sellers like cash offers, other than the obvious, there is no appraisal or loan constraints and close sooner.

“Escalation” Clauses

Obviously, most of us don’t have cash to buy a home. So, depending on how badly a buyer wants to buy a home, there have been some creative methods used to make offers involving financing more attractive to sellers when the buyer doesn’t have cash.  One I have seen, is where an offer involves an “escalation” clause.  Since only the seller and the listing agent are privy to the details of all the offers (it is unethical to disclose what the offers details are) some buyers are offering to pay over what the highest offer was, by a certain dollar amount or escalating their offer up to a maximum amount the buyer would be willing to go.  This can lead to some contentious offers and counteroffers.

Appraisal and Inspection Contingencies

Another way buyers are using to make their financed offers more attractive is to forgo the appraisal and inspection contingencies.  Buyers forgoing the inspection contingency will accept the property in “as is” condition and will not require the seller to make any repairs.  This can be a risky situation and even if the buyer gets an inspection and finds reasons to back out, earnest money will be forfeited.  Removing the appraisal contingency means if the property fails to appraise for the sales price, the buyer is willing and has the ability to pay, in cash, the difference between the appraisal price and the sales price, since the lender will only loan on the lower value.  In other words, if a property sells for $300,000 and it appraises for $295,000, the buyer must have an additional $5,000 over and above the required down payment.  

Guerilla Warfare

This is the guerilla warfare which is taking place in our current real estate environment.  So, is cash king?  It certainly has been a factor and one which has increased by roughly 30% since last year.  Of the 502 closed sales through April 30th  this year, 20% involved cash sales. Putting that into perspective, cash sales in 2019 accounted for 17% of the closed sales, 15% in 2020.  While cash sales have increased, as a buyer, you still can compete against cash offers, but is not what our typical modus operandi has been forever.  The buying environment right now is one of increasing prices and buyers having to give up contingencies which were a standard of practice. 

Price Gouging?

Once again, if you are a buyer, be prepared for these realities and if you are a seller be prepared for multiple and more than likely, offers over asking price.  One caveat, as a seller, the market still knows an overpriced property.  Thinking you can set an outlandish price and get it might not happen.  The typical situation now when a home comes on the market, is to allow 3-5 days of buyer showings and then having sellers evaluate all the offers and responding to them at the end of that period.  As a seller, if you have many showings and no offers after the initial showing period, you have a pricing problem.  The market will always find its level. 

Beartooth Bank, a division of American Bank Center, celebrates the grand opening of its newest location in downtown Billings with a ribbon cutting on Monday, May 17. This is Beartooth Bank’s second location in Billings and is located at 123 N. Broadway Ave. 

The community is encouraged to visit the new 7,000 square-foot bank and register for prizes during the grand opening celebration May 17-20. There are chances to win prizes each day with a grand prize drawing on the last day.

In addition to personal banking services, the new downtown location is focused on offering effective and efficient banking solutions for businesses as well. Services provided include commercial lending, agricultural banking, retail, digital services, consumer lending and home mortgage. There will be an opportunity for future expansion to meet customers’ trust and insurance needs.

It also features American’s Branch of Tomorrow concept, which includes industry-leading technology and a model of service that provides more convenience by having one point of contact for all of a customer’s banking needs.

 Beartooth Bank’s other location is at 4130 King Ave. W., Billings.

Big Sky Economic Development (BSED) will receive a $12,000 U.S. Bank Foundation Community Possible grant to be directed toward financial education for small businesses and workforce development initiatives.

The U.S. Bank Foundation is committed to making Community Possible through the areas of Work, Home and Play to create lasting change. The foundation does this by focusing on meaningful impact in the communities it serves and through meaningful partnerships with local nonprofits, like Big Sky Economic Development.

Bill Davies, U.S. Bank Regional President, said “We know that a strong small business environment and an educated workforce ensures the prosperity of our communities. We provide grant support to programs and organizations that help small businesses thrive, allow people to succeed in the workforce, provide pathways to higher education and gain greater financial literacy. Big Sky Economic Development is a tremendous advocate for small business and workforce development, and we can’t think of a better partner to help us fulfill this work.”

“This grant will allow us to continue our mission of helping small businesses start and grow in our region and allow us to continue to offer key programs related to workforce development,” said Steve Arveschoug, Executive Director for BSED.

The Big Sky Passenger Rail Authority (BSPRA) grew a bit larger when its board of directors approved Carbon County as the newest member of the Authority. The addition of Carbon brings the number of counties that have joined the BSPRA to 13, stretching across the state from Wibaux County on the North Dakota border to Sanders County on the Idaho border.

“Being a member of the Big Sky Passenger Rail Authority is a big deal for Carbon County, and we look forward to what it brings to citizens of our county,” Carbon County Commissioner Scott Miller said. “Montana is moving forward into the future, and Carbon County has to move with the state to bring the economy and infrastructure needed to support this and the next generation. We need Montanans to stay in Montana and good people to move in to help keep Montana alive.”

With the addition of Carbon County, the BSPRA will look to continue growing in the coming months. Other counties are currently considering petitioning the Authority for membership. The BSPRA remains hopeful that eventually all the counties eligible to join the authority – both those along the former Amtrak North Coast Hiawatha route and those along the former passenger routes running south to Denver and Salt Lake City – will do so.