By Brett Rowland, The Center Square

The U.S. population is projected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080 before falling back to 366 million in 2100, according to the latest projections from the U.S. Census Bureau. 

By 2100, the total U.S. resident population is projected to increase 9.7% from 2022. The Census Bureau projections provide possible scenarios of population change for the nation through the end of the century.

“In an ever-changing world, understanding population dynamics is crucial for shaping policies and planning resources,” said Sandra Johnson, a demographer at the Census Bureau.

The projections show slower growth than was previously expected.

“The U.S. has experienced notable shifts in the components of population change over the last five years,” she said. “Some of these, like the increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be short-term while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue into the future. Incorporating additional years of data on births, deaths and international migration into our projections process resulted in a slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected.”

The Census Bureau projections show possible paths of population change based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration.

The 2023 projections include a main series (also known as the middle series) considered the most likely outcome of four assumptions, and three alternative immigration scenarios that show how the population might change under high, low and zero immigration assumptions.

* By 2100, the total population in the middle series is projected to reach 366 million compared to the projection for the high-immigration scenario, which puts the population at 435 million. The population for the middle series increases to a peak at 370 million in 2080 and then begins to decline, dropping to 366 million in 2100. The high-immigration scenario increases every year and is projected to reach 435 million by 2100.

* The low-immigration scenario is projected to peak at around 346 million in 2043 and decline thereafter, dropping to 319 million in 2100.

* Though largely illustrative, the zero-immigration scenario projects that population declines would start in 2024 in the complete absence of foreign-born immigration. The population in this scenario is projected to be 226 million in 2100, roughly 107 million lower than the 2022 estimate.

Immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth under three of the four scenarios. The zero-immigration scenario is the exception. The projections show reduced fertility and an aging population result in natural decrease – more deaths than births – in all scenarios. This happens in 2038 in the main series, 2033 in the zero-immigration scenario, 2036 in the low-immigration scenario and in 2042 in the high-immigration scenario.

The group that is seeking funding to advance a plan to build a passenger rail service through southern Montana, The Big Sky Passenger Rail Authority (BSPRA), has been awarded a $150,000 grant to explore the feasibility of the project. The grant was awarded by  the Pacific Northwest Economic Region’s Regional Infrastructure Accelerator (PNWER) , a federal agency whose goal is to further high-performance rail across the region. This constitutes the largest planning grant received by BSPRA to-date.

U.S. Department of Transportation’s Build America Bureau awarded the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region (PNWER) a grant to continue advancing infrastructure development through the five-state Regional Infrastructure Accelerator for which it has oversight of Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.

The public funds will finance the development of a feasibility and economic study. It will look for opportunities to “bundle” track improvement that could benefit passenger and freight rail service, and for possible development of transit near rail stations. 

It would analyze track from Sandpoint, ID, to Glendive, MT, along proposed Amtrak North Coast Hiawatha route to identify small to medium track improvement projects for enhanced freight and passenger rail service for rural communities and tribal nations.

The Center Square

Voters have their eyes on their bottom line ahead of the 2024 election. The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, found that 48% of registered voters picked inflation as the top issue from a list of 18. That was followed by illegal immigration (33%), crime/violence (28%) and economy/jobs (24%).

The highest-earning foreign-born workers made at least $376,320 in 2019, compared with $279,079 for U.S.-born workers in the same percentile, according to recent research. Foreign-born workers account for nearly one-in-five of the top 1% wage earners in the U.S., new research shows. nt for nearly one-in-five of the top 1% wage earners in the U.S. Overseas-born workers declined slightly as a share of the U.S. workforce between 2005 and 2019. Still, their presence in the top 1% of wage-earners climbed to 19.7% from 13.4%, according to research recently published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

 By Marilyn Bartlett and Christin Deacon

 Employer health plan costs continue to spiral out of control, threatening profitability, competitiveness, and employee wages. The Kaiser Family Foundation recently announced the average annual employer-sponsored family health plan premium reached $24,000. This cost, generally split between employer and employee, has increased by 50% over the last decade. 

 Employers need not passively accept these health plan cost overruns. They can draw on three pillars of federal healthcare price transparency policy to reverse these runaway costs and protect their employees and bottom lines. 

The first two pillars – the Hospital Price Transparency rule that took effect in January 2021 and the Transparency in Coverage rule that took effect in July 2022 — require hospitals, group health plans, and health insurers to publish their actual prices, including all their negotiated rates with insurance carriers. The third pillar is the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021, which requires third-party administrators, insurers, and provider networks to share claims information with employer and union group health plans.

 This information can empower employers, who provide health coverage for nearly 160 million Americans, to choose affordable healthcare and benefit from competition. Armed with actual prices, employers can compare their health claims with hospital and health insurance prices to ensure they get the best pricing and care for their employees, and they can ensure they get what they are paying for.

For example, they can identify well-documented wide price variations for the same treatments and choose the best value. A forthcoming report by PatientRightsAdvocate.org draws on employers’ claims data that reveal the price of a CT scan of the abdomen or pelvis ranges from $215 to $10,000, the price of a colonoscopy varies from $1,000 to $31,000, and the price of a vaginal delivery fluctuates from $1,800 to $24,000, depending on the employer and treatment location. By comparing their claims against actual posted prices, employers can avoid egregious billing, spread pricing, and other payment schemes responsible for runaway costs. 

 We’ve seen how access to all health plan prices and claims data is needed to dramatically reduce healthcare costs. In 2014, Marilyn was hired to direct Montana’s insolvent State Health Plan, which covers approximately 30,000 state employees, retirees, and their families. An analysis of the plan’s medical claims data revealed Montana hospitals were charging up to six times the Medicare rate for services, with significant price variation between providers. 

To overcome this egregious and highly variable hospital pricing, the plan contracted with hospitals in the state to pay rates slightly more than twice Medicare rates. This move increased plan reserves from a projected deficit of $9 million to a surplus of $112 million in three years, saving $121 million without cost-shifting or decreasing benefit levels.

 Chris ran New Jersey’s 800,000 life public sector health plan and likewise identified wide price variation and discrepancies in the state’s claims data which has led to ongoing investigations into the practices of some of the state’s largest vendors. The state launched a payment integrity program in 2020 that provided enhanced oversight of hospital billing and carrier payment practices to safeguard the plan and protect taxpayer dollars, saving more than $150 million in its first 20 months. 

 Unfortunately, these transformative pillars haven’t become a reality for American healthcare consumers. A recent PatientRightsAdvocate.org report finds that only 36% of American hospitals are fully complying with the price transparency rule, including posting all negotiated rates by health plan. A new JAMA study concludes even posted hospital prices are usually very different than the prices hospitals offer over the phone. 

A recent Health Affairs paper reveals most employer health claims don’t match the prices in the insurance price disclosure files. This inaccuracy in pricing data makes it impossible to reconcile claims, identify overbilling, or shop for higher-value care. The study’s authors note, “the intent of the regulations that govern the body of price transparency policies cannot be accomplished with the current level of inaccuracies in the files.” 

 In addition, major employers and unions nationwide, including  Kraft Heinz, Owens & Minor Inc., and Bricklayers and Sheet Metal Workers unions, have recently been forced to sue their own health insurance companies to access claims data for their own health plan. They’ve paid billions to their carriers over the years and have alleged substantial overpayments and spread pricing facilitated by the opaque status quo. 

Even though these three pillars need reinforcement, employers can still follow our lead and others like us who have stood firm on them to reduce health plan costs. They can draw on their claims data, actual prices from hospitals, and the prices negotiated by carriers on employers’ behalf to make smart purchasing decisions and demand accountability. For now, they need to fight for this information. But the more employers who do so, the stronger the three pillars will become and the easier it will be to finally reduce outrageous health plan costs. 

Marilyn Bartlett, CPA, CMA, CFM, CGMA, is the former administrator of the State of Montana Employee Health Plan. Christin Deacon is the former Director of Health Benefits Operations and Policy and Planning for New Jersey.

Dr. Susan Gilbertz has been appointed the new MSU-B College of Business Interim Dean, with the retirement of Ed Garding, who retired as Interim Dean for the College of Business in June 30. He was former First Interstate Bank President.

A search for a new College of Business Dean was announced in October.

Gilbertz grew up on a ranch south of Gillette, Wyoming and attended small rural schools. She earned bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of Wyoming in Communication and Conflict Management. Later, from Texas A&M University, she earned the PhD in Geography.

Gilbertz served at Texas A&M University for 18 years as: instructor of communication, coordinator of advising for a department, international studies faculty exchange instructor (Italy, France, Indonesia, China, Germany, Oman), and co-investigator on nearly $1,000,000 of research grants involving environmental conflicts.

In 2003, she took the position of Director of Environmental Studies at Montana State University Billings. In her twenty years with MSUB she managed the EVST program, taught a variety of courses. Before taking the Associate Dean position with the COB, she served in faculty leadership roles.

Gilbertz’s primary research interests have focused on the sustainability of the communities of the Yellowstone, the Clark’s Fork, Madison, the Ruby, the Milk and the St. Mary’s Rivers of Montana. She has overseen over $500,000 in research projects for MSUB, and has nearly 50 publications.

Gilbertz was recently enlisted by the USGS to serve as the co-chair/US representative to the St. Mary’s/Milk River Socioeconomic Technical Working Group of the Joint International Commission that oversees water sharing between Canada and the US.

Gilbertz remains involved in the management of three ranching business entities in Wyoming and is the sole proprietor of a small social entrepreneurship enterprise in Billings. 

The search for a new College of Business Dean was announced earlier in October and a full position description may be found at www.msubillings.edu.

By Kim Jarrett, The Center Square

A proposed long-term care staffing rule from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services would not improve care but would force nursing homes to close, 14 Republican governors said in a letter to CMS.

The rule changes would require long-term care facilities to conduct a facility assessment that includes a staffing plan within 60 days of the rule’s implementation. The second phase of the rule mandates a registered nurse must be onsite 24 hours a day.

The final element of the rule would require a registered nurse on site for 0.55 hours per resident day and nurses aides onsite for 2.45 hours per resident. It would be implemented three years after the final rule is published.

The governors, including Gov. Greg Gianforte, said the rule would lead to a crisis in the long-term care industry.

“America’s long-term care industry is facing a full-fledged workforce crisis, hitting lows not seen since 1994,” the governors said in the letter. “Between February 2020 and December 2022, facilities lost more than 200,000 workers, and industry observers view long-term care as among the hardest hit sectors in healthcare that has still not recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Such challenges are especially acute in rural areas. Despite this, the CMS requirements would force over 80% of facilities nationwide to hire more staff at a time when workers, particularly RNs, have never been scarcer.”

The requirements could force nursing homes to close, they said.

The Iowa Health Care Association agrees. Twenty-seven nursing homes have closed in Iowa since 2022, according to the association, which represents 318 nursing homes and other long-term care facilities across the state.

“The CMS rule issued today to enforce the Administration’s proposed mandate will needlessly exacerbate the extraordinary health care workforce crisis, tear at the fabric of our rural communities, and threaten access to long-term care services for Iowans who depend on those services to meet their most basic human needs,” said IHCA president and CEO Brent Willett the day the rule was released. “Today’s rule, if allowed to stand, will result in further closures, introducing needless trauma into the lives of residents and preventing access to care for rural Iowans who deserve it.”

The letter is signed by the governors of Iowa, Nebraska, Georgia, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming.

By Evelyn Pyburn

A contingent of state legislators, Billings and other state leaders, in various capacities, will be making a trip to Rapid City, South Dakota to tour their detention facility, the Pennington County Jail, to find out how they operate and possibly learn new ideas about how to deal with some aspects of Yellowstone County’s crime issues.

The trip will serve a two-fold purpose, according to City Councilwoman Jennifer Owen.  Some of those going on the trip are members of the sub-committee appointed by the Criminal Justice Coordinating Council (CJCC) to explore all aspects of the county’s justice system, including the possible expansion of the jail, and others will be focused on how they deal with their pre-arraignment process and diversion program.

Owen is part of the CJCC subcommittee, as is County Commissioner Mark Morse and state legislator, Barry Usher, who will also be going on the tour. There will be others going on the trip from city and county leadership, as well as a number of state legislators.

 About the subcommittee, Owen explained, “We are looking at every possible thing we can do to make it [the justice system] work better.”  A separate “overarching” project is to build a temporary holding facility. With that in mind, there will be some investigation by the tour group into a pre-arraignment facility.

The City is pushing for the temporary holding facility, hoping to get a contract with Yellowstone County to operate it, and that it will be operational in a matter of months – at least by the end of 2024. The City has included a half million dollars in its budget to pursue the project, and anticipate that there may be a need to appropriate more funds. By law, only the County can operate a jail or prison, which is why the City will negotiate a two or three year contract with the County to operate a facility to hold misdemeanor cases immediately after being arrested for up to 72 hours as they wait to see a judge.

In having to deal with an over-crowded jail, a scenario that currently occurs regularly, is that a law officer will charge someone who, for example, is drunk and disorderly, only to have to leave them “on the streets,” since they don’t have a place to hold them. Invariably they will encounter that same person again later in the same night perpetrating another crime. “They can end up having multiple outstanding warrants and multiple crimes in one evening,” said Owen. It is instances such as this that a temporary holding facility is expected to curb.

The idea is to fund short- term, temporary structures that are flexible, which will allow officials to evaluate, over a two or three year period, the holding facility’s impact on crime and whether the facility impacts the jail – the Yellowstone County Detention Facility — population. The data collected will be beneficial in knowing what is needed in expanding the jail. According to Owen there are a number of vendors that offer a variety of units that can be rented.

County Commissioner Morse commented that where the information they gather will lead is uncertain. It will help in determining whether a temporary holding facility is possible and how it might fit in with other strategies, as well as helping to clarify uncertainties about adding onto the jail.  No matter what they do, a temporary holding facility would have to be located in proximity to the jail in order to access support services such as medical care, kitchen, laundry, administration, etc.

Among other options that the subcommittee is looking at is information brought by Justice of the Peace David Carter regarding a management program that will unify the courts and improve the ability of the courts to get data out of the system, which means, for example, a judge will know if a defendant before him has other outstanding warrants, etc.

County Attorney Scott Twito, who heads the CJCC, is also overseeing the sub-committee, which is meeting on a weekly basis, and is comprised of city and county officials, law enforcement, judges, and a legislator.

By Evelyn Pyburn

While many aspects of updating and expanding the Billings airport have been completed, there are more to come. Most of them are essential to attracting and retaining airline companies in the Billings market, according to Jeff Roach, Airport Director at Logan International Field in Billings.

Roach was one of several speakers at a special event featuring the Billings Air Service Committee hosted by the Billings Chamber of Commerce. Also presenting was Trina Froehlch of Mead & Hunt, of Eugene, Oregon. She gave one reason for the question that is commonly asked by people in Billings, which is why does Bozeman have more and less expensive flights than Billings? She explained that following COVID, business travel did not bounce back the way leisure travel has, which has encouraged airlines to invest more in leisure travel than business travel. Given that Bozeman has far more leisure travelers while Billings has always had a stronger business community, Bozeman has been more attractive for airline investment.

She added, “Billings and Bozeman are very different markets.”

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities for Billings to expand its service. One way is to use Billings’ air service, even if it is a bit more expensive, advised Billings Chamber CEO John Brewer. The more travelers there are using Billings’ service the more attractive it appears as a good market to the airline carriers. The difference in cost per ticket isn’t that great – currently on average 13 percent per ticket. While that can amount to a lot for a family, Brewer is just saying….

The number of potential passengers is paramount for airlines in making their decision about where to bring service. Increasingly, they are operating larger aircraft with more seating because operating smaller planes is too expensive. They need to fill seats – typically from 60-70 – in each airplane.

Froehlch identified four areas of costs that are plaguing airline companies – high fuel costs, labor shortages, a decline in demand, and a shortage of aircraft. But their Number 1 problem is a shortage of pilots.  “It is really acute.”

There are a number of things that Billings airport has to do in order to bring in new carriers and expand service – “things that weren’t priorities before.” Some $60 million in upgrades have been identified.

Airline companies do not want to unload passengers on the ground. Billings Airport is doubling their number of gates. They have completed four and planning to add four more by April 1. They have only one ground loading area.

This spring they will begin building access roads to business centers within Logan Field.

They are going to realign the road on the west end of the airport which will allow for the expansion of a ramp that allows for a fifth air cargo pad.

“Every year into the future we have projects planned,” said Roach. The projects are prioritized and set forth in a master plan, but Roach noted that their existing master plan is 12 years old and needs to be updated. They updating could take up to two years.

Developing a 20- year master plan will take “robust public involvement,” said Roach.

Parking is one of the critical issues. “Do we stay on the ground or do we go vertical?” questioned Roach. Security improvements is another issue. “Our baggage claim no longer meets security requirements,” he said. There are other security issues to be addressed. Changes are also necessary in the area of bag screening and ticket counters.

Roach hinted that another fixed based operator is coming to Billings, a business similar to Edwards Jet Center.

There has been expansion in Billings’ air service.

The City of Billings, in partnership with the Tourism Business Improvement District (TBID), the Billings Chamber of Commerce, and Big Sky Economic Development has been awarded a $1,000,000 Small Community Air Service Development Program (SCASD) grant by the United States Department of Transportation to recruit, initiate, and support new air service between Billings and one of two California hubs—San Francisco or Los Angeles.

Brewer pointed out that Southern California was identified as one of the top destinations in the country and Billings has no direct service to California. The Billings community must fulfill a match commitment to get the grant, which they are working on doing, according to Ashley Kavanagh, Senior Director of Recruitment and Community Development at Big Sky Economic Development. Local citizens and businesses were urged to contribute.

Another new “low-cost carrier”,  Sun Country Airlines, has been announced to begin service in Billings on June 19, 2024, with nonstop flights to Minneapolis-St. Paul. A seasonal service, the flights will be run every Wednesday and Saturday, until Aug. 24, 2024.

Billing has the second most flights, but is third in seat capacity.

Companies offering air service in Billings are Alaska, Allegiant, Delta, Frontier, Jet Blue and Southwest.

By Christen Smith, The Center Square

The Biden administration cut a $7 billion check to launch its vision for a hydrogen-fueled future.

The money augments $40 billion in private investment to build seven hydrogen hubs across the nation that will decarbonize transportation and industrial manufacturing, slashing 25 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year.

The amount “roughly” equates to removing 5.5 million gasoline-powered vehicles from the road, or just under 2% of the estimated 286 million operational cars in the United States.

After calling climate change “the only existential threat to humanity” during a news conference in Philadelphia, President Joe Biden touted federal infrastructure spending as the key to reigning in greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning away from fossil fuel reliance.

“Today’s announcement is all part of a bigger vision to do just that,” he said.

The hubs expand across seven regions and 16 states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, New Jersey, Delaware, California, Texas, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and Montana.

Together, the network of pipelines, storage facilities and refueling stations will use natural gas to produce energy and capture the resulting carbon emissions underground, creating 3 million metric tons of hydrogen annually – or about 30% of the federal government’s “clean hydrogen” goal for 2030.

“I found that when the government invests in the needs of the American people, guess what? The private sector jumps on real quick,” Biden said.

Hydrogen can be produced in three ways – referred to as gray, blue or green. Gray hydrogen is produced with natural gas and steam; blue is produced the same way, but its carbon gets captured and stored underground; and green is produced with renewable energy, such as wind or nuclear.

Others warn that relying on federal subsidies may waste taxpayer money, especially since the promised benefits of carbon capture, in particular, haven’t panned out.

Despite this, the administration said two-thirds of the projects will work with green hydrogen, in some capacity, and has publicized a four-year timeline to complete construction on the hubs.